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@ARTICLE{Bathiany:1006637,
      author       = {Bathiany, Sebastian and Belleflamme, Alexandre and El
                      Zohbi, Juliane and Ney, Patrizia and Görgen, Klaus and
                      Rechid, Diana},
      title        = {{I}ncreasing interannual climate variability during crop
                      flowering in {E}urope},
      journal      = {Environmental research letters},
      volume       = {18},
      number       = {4},
      issn         = {1748-9318},
      address      = {Bristol},
      publisher    = {IOP Publ.},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2023-01770},
      pages        = {044037},
      year         = {2023},
      abstract     = {Climate change has increasingly adverse effects on global
                      crop yields through the occurrence of heat waves, water
                      stress, and other weather-related extremes. Besides losses
                      of average yields, a decrease in yield stability—i.e. an
                      increase in variability of yields from year to year—poses
                      economic risks and threatens food security. Here we
                      investigate a number of climate indices related to adverse
                      weather events during the flowering of wheat, maize and
                      rapeseed, in the current cultivation areas as well as the
                      main European producer countries. In 52 projections from
                      regional climate models, we identify robust increases in the
                      interannual variability of temperature, precipitation and
                      soil moisture by $∼+20\%$ in standard deviation in the
                      model median. We find that winter wheat is most exposed to
                      variability increases, whereas rapeseed flowering escapes
                      the largest increases due to the early flowering time and
                      the northern locations of cultivation areas, while the
                      opposite (escape due to southern locations and late
                      flowering) is true for maize to some extent. Considering the
                      timing of crop development stages, we also find a robust
                      increase in the variability of the temporal occurrence of
                      flowering, which suggests a decreased reliability in the
                      timing of crop stages, hampering management steps like
                      fertilization, irrigation or harvesting. Our study raises
                      concerns for European crop yield stability in a warmer
                      climate and highlights the need for risk diversification
                      strategies in agricultural adaptation.},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      ddc          = {690},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {2173 - Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
                      (POF4-217)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000968911500001},
      doi          = {10.1088/1748-9326/acc87e},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1006637},
}