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@ARTICLE{Tesch:1006966,
author = {Tesch, Tobias and Kollet, Stefan and Garcke, Jochen},
title = {{C}ausal deep learning models for studying the {E}arth
system},
journal = {Geoscientific model development},
volume = {16},
number = {8},
issn = {1991-959X},
address = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
publisher = {Copernicus},
reportid = {FZJ-2023-01917},
pages = {2149 - 2166},
year = {2023},
abstract = {Earth is a complex non-linear dynamical system. Despite
decades of research and considerable scientific and
methodological progress, many processes and relations
between Earth system variables remain poorly understood.
Current approaches for studying relations in the Earth
system rely either on numerical simulations or statistical
approaches. However, there are several inherent limitations
to existing approaches, including high computational costs,
uncertainties in numerical models, strong assumptions about
linearity or locality, and the fallacy of correlation and
causality. Here, we propose a novel methodology combining
deep learning (DL) and principles of causality research in
an attempt to overcome these limitations. On the one hand,
we employ the recent idea of training and analyzing DL
models to gain new scientific insights into relations
between input and target variables. On the other hand, we
use the fact that a statistical model learns the causal
effect of an input variable on a target variable if suitable
additional input variables are included. As an illustrative
example, we apply the methodology to study
soil-moisture–precipitation coupling in ERA5 climate
reanalysis data across Europe. We demonstrate that,
harnessing the great power and flexibility of DL models, the
proposed methodology may yield new scientific insights into
complex non-linear and non-local coupling mechanisms in the
Earth system.},
cin = {IBG-3},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
pnm = {2173 - Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
(POF4-217)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000972780500001},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-16-2149-2023},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1006966},
}