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@INPROCEEDINGS{Hoffmann:1008359,
      author       = {Hoffmann, Richard and Görgen, Klaus and Bogena, Heye and
                      Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan},
      title        = {{F}rom observations towards operational site-specific soil
                      moisture ensemble forecasting},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2023-02305},
      year         = {2023},
      abstract     = {The use of numerical models for real-time management of
                      water resources is becoming increasingly popular as the
                      increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
                      negatively affect society, agriculture and crop yields.
                      Prolonged droughts are becoming the new normal, which, among
                      other things, increase the need for operational,
                      site-specific soil moisture forecasting. A model that
                      provides accurate site-specific soil moisture forecasts can
                      support agriculture by contributing to precision irrigation
                      and the provision of important information for crop
                      planning, yield maximization and the coordination of field
                      operations. Soil moisture assimilation has proven potential
                      to provide appropriate initial conditions for such a
                      forecast model. However, the operational estimation of an
                      initial condition requires model-specific protocols for
                      continuously incorporating new observational data into
                      models for hydrological, crop, land surface, vadose zone, or
                      subsurface processes that are not yet widely available. In
                      this study, we present an automated data pipeline for
                      operational, site-specific soil moisture ensemble
                      forecasting based on the Community Land Model Version 5.0
                      (CLM5) taking the TERENO agricultural research station
                      "Selhausen" in western Germany as an example. CLM5 simulates
                      vegetation states, carbon and nitrogen pools prognostically.
                      We compare land surface model prediction quality (e.g., soil
                      moisture, crop yield) with and without weather forecasts and
                      with and without near real-time soil moisture data
                      assimilation. Climatological mean time series and 10-day
                      ensemble weather forecasts from the German Weather Service,
                      aggregated to the grid cell, are the atmospheric forcings in
                      simulating future states. Forecasts start from the states of
                      the last simulation time step with on-site measurements of
                      precipitation, wind speed, air temperature, air pressure,
                      relative humidity, and global radiation as the atmospheric
                      forcings. In parallel with forward simulations from
                      2011-2021 (open loop experiment), soil moisture assimilation
                      is being performed for 2018-2021 to generate site-specific
                      initial conditions for the land surface model with reduced
                      uncertainty. Forecasts starting from initial conditions
                      based on soil moisture assimilation are more reliable as
                      model bias is reduced. Preliminary results show that the
                      inclusion of site-specific weather forecast uncertainties in
                      the model improves the simulation of soil moisture dynamics
                      at the plot scale and is thus important for optimizing
                      irrigation schedules while keeping crop productivity
                      stable.},
      month         = {Jun},
      date          = {2023-06-12},
      organization  = {8th EGU Galileo Conference - A
                       European vision for hydrological
                       observations and experimentation,
                       Naples (Italy), 12 Jun 2023 - 15 Jun
                       2023},
      subtyp        = {After Call},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {2173 - Agro-biogeosystems: controls, feedbacks and impact
                      (POF4-217) / WATERAGRI - WATER RETENTION AND NUTRIENT
                      RECYCLING IN SOILS AND STREAMS FOR IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL
                      PRODUCTION (858375)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2173 / G:(EU-Grant)858375},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)6},
      doi          = {10.5194/egusphere-gc8-hydro-44},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1008359},
}