guest ::
| Home > Publications database > Making water models more inclusive and interdisciplinary to underpin sustainable development |
| Home > Publications database > Making water models more inclusive and interdisciplinary to underpin sustainable development |
| Poster (After Call) | FZJ-2023-02489 |
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
2023
This record in other databases:
Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16122
Abstract: Reliable predictions of water systems’ response to external pressures and ongoing changes arehighly important to ensure informed decision-making to support sustainable water resourcesmanagement for human use and the functioning of healthy ecosystems. Recent strongdevelopment of numerical models offers a potential to understand and forecast water systemsunder anthropogenic and climatic influences to provide information for decision-making, processunderstanding of the ‘unseen’ part of the water cycle and hazard risk analysis. However, thereliability of numerical model predictions is strongly influenced by various sources ofuncertainties, data qualities and assumptions, and often lacks stakeholders' point-of-view. A new,improved approach is needed and in this paper, we present six basic principles to improve thereliability and accuracy of numerical water model predictions considering explicitly stakeholders'needs and, thereby, better serving the society. Six highlighted principles are: (i) clearly defining theobjectives and the purpose of the model, sustaining them during the entire modelling process; (ii)incorporating expert and local community knowledge through stakeholders' feedback; (iii)implementing a multi-model approach in which a range of conceptualizations are explored ; (iv)considering and representing the uncertainties arising from model inputs, parameters, conceptualmodel structure and measurement/information error; (v) translating the results to concrete andunderstandable strategies that policymakers can use for their informed decision-making; and (vi)long term capacity building and monitoring data collection to reduce knowledge gaps, test andimprove predictions. We argue that implementing these six principles reduces uncertainties,improves the predictive capacity of the numerical water models, and ensures informed decision-making to support sustainable water resources management and thereby serve society better.
|
The record appears in these collections: |
