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@ARTICLE{Riechers:1010203,
      author       = {Riechers, Keno and Rydin Gorjão, Leonardo and
                      Hassanibesheli, Forough and Lind, Pedro G. and Witthaut,
                      Dirk and Boers, Niklas},
      title        = {{S}table stadial and interstadial states of the last
                      glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water
                      isotope and dust record from {G}reenland},
      journal      = {Earth System Dynamics},
      volume       = {14},
      number       = {3},
      issn         = {2190-4979},
      address      = {Göttingen},
      publisher    = {Copernicus Publ.},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2023-03012},
      pages        = {593 - 607},
      year         = {2023},
      abstract     = {During the last glacial interval, the Northern Hemisphere
                      climate was punctuated by a series of abrupt changes between
                      two characteristic climate regimes. The existence of stadial
                      (cold) and interstadial (milder) periods is typically
                      attributed to a hypothesised bistability in the glacial
                      North Atlantic climate system, allowing for rapid
                      transitions from the stadial to the interstadial state –
                      the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events – and more
                      gradual yet still fairly abrupt reverse shifts. The physical
                      mechanisms driving these regime transitions remain debated.
                      DO events are characterised by substantial warming over
                      Greenland and a reorganisation of the Northern Hemisphere
                      atmospheric circulation, which are evident from concomitant
                      shifts in the δ18O ratios and dust concentration records
                      from Greenland ice cores. Treating the combined δ18O and
                      dust record obtained by the North Greenland Ice Core Project
                      (NGRIP) as a realisation of a two-dimensional,
                      time-homogeneous, and Markovian stochastic process, we
                      present a reconstruction of its underlying deterministic
                      drift based on the leading-order terms of the
                      Kramers–Moyal equation. The analysis reveals two basins of
                      attraction in the two-dimensional state space that can be
                      identified with the stadial and interstadial regimes. The
                      drift term of the dust exhibits a double-fold bifurcation
                      structure, while – in contrast to prevailing assumptions
                      – the δ18O component of the drift is clearly mono-stable.
                      This suggests that the last glacial's Greenland temperatures
                      should not be regarded as an intrinsically bistable climate
                      variable. Instead, the two-regime nature of the δ18O record
                      is apparently inherited from a coupling to another bistable
                      climate process. In contrast, the bistability evidenced in
                      the dust drift points to the presence of two stable
                      circulation regimes of the last glacial's Northern
                      Hemisphere atmosphere.},
      cin          = {IEK-10},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-10-20170217},
      pnm          = {1122 - Design, Operation and Digitalization of the Future
                      Energy Grids (POF4-112) / HGF-ZT-I-0029 - Helmholtz UQ:
                      Uncertainty Quantification - from data to reliable knowledge
                      (HGF-ZT-I-0029)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1122 / G:(DE-Ds200)HGF-ZT-I-0029},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000988953100001},
      doi          = {10.5194/esd-14-593-2023},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1010203},
}