%0 Journal Article
%A Sippel, Sebastian
%A Barnes, Clair
%A Cadiou, Camille
%A Fischer, Erich
%A Kew, Sarah
%A Kretschmer, Marlene
%A Philip, Sjoukje
%A Shepherd, Theodore G.
%A Singh, Jitendra
%A Vautard, Robert
%A Yiou, Pascal
%T Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
%J Weather and climate dynamics
%V 5
%N 3
%@ 2698-4008
%C Göttingen
%I Copernicus Publications
%M FZJ-2024-06460
%P 943 - 957
%D 2024
%X Central European winters have warmed markedlysince the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associatedwith severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure,and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipatestorylines of worst-case cold winter conditions andto understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as thecoldest winter on the historical record of Germany in 1963(-6.3°C or -3.4 sigma seasonal December–January–February(DJF) temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is stillpossible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based onmultiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulationconditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonalcold anomaly of about -4.9 to -4.7°C (best estimatesacross methods) under present-day climate. This would rankas the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second,we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditionsbased on two independent rare event sampling methods (climatemodel boosting and empirical importance sampling): awinter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in centralEurope today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazardsbecome less frequent and less intense in a warming climateoverall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of anextremely cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation andincreased vulnerability.
%F PUB:(DE-HGF)16
%9 Journal Article
%U <Go to ISI:>//WOS:001274883300001
%R 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
%U https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1033580