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001033580 1001_ $$00000-0002-4510-4458$$aSippel, Sebastian$$b0$$eCorresponding author
001033580 245__ $$aCould an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
001033580 260__ $$aGöttingen$$bCopernicus Publications$$c2024
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001033580 520__ $$aCentral European winters have warmed markedlysince the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associatedwith severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure,and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipatestorylines of worst-case cold winter conditions andto understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as thecoldest winter on the historical record of Germany in 1963(-6.3°C or -3.4 sigma seasonal December–January–February(DJF) temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is stillpossible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based onmultiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulationconditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonalcold anomaly of about -4.9 to -4.7°C (best estimatesacross methods) under present-day climate. This would rankas the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second,we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditionsbased on two independent rare event sampling methods (climatemodel boosting and empirical importance sampling): awinter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in centralEurope today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazardsbecome less frequent and less intense in a warming climateoverall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of anextremely cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation andincreased vulnerability.
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001033580 7001_ $$00000-0002-7806-7913$$aBarnes, Clair$$b1
001033580 7001_ $$00000-0002-2104-4139$$aCadiou, Camille$$b2
001033580 7001_ $$00000-0003-1931-6737$$aFischer, Erich$$b3
001033580 7001_ $$00000-0002-0418-9520$$aKew, Sarah$$b4
001033580 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKretschmer, Marlene$$b5
001033580 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPhilip, Sjoukje$$b6
001033580 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)192332$$aShepherd, Theodore G.$$b7
001033580 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSingh, Jitendra$$b8
001033580 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aVautard, Robert$$b9
001033580 7001_ $$00000-0001-8534-5355$$aYiou, Pascal$$b10
001033580 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2982467-9$$a10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024$$gVol. 5, no. 3, p. 943 - 957$$n3$$p943 - 957$$tWeather and climate dynamics$$v5$$x2698-4008$$y2024
001033580 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1033580/files/Sippel%202024.pdf$$yOpenAccess
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