TY  - JOUR
AU  - Sippel, Sebastian
AU  - Barnes, Clair
AU  - Cadiou, Camille
AU  - Fischer, Erich
AU  - Kew, Sarah
AU  - Kretschmer, Marlene
AU  - Philip, Sjoukje
AU  - Shepherd, Theodore G.
AU  - Singh, Jitendra
AU  - Vautard, Robert
AU  - Yiou, Pascal
TI  - Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
JO  - Weather and climate dynamics
VL  - 5
IS  - 3
SN  - 2698-4008
CY  - Göttingen
PB  - Copernicus Publications
M1  - FZJ-2024-06460
SP  - 943 - 957
PY  - 2024
AB  - Central European winters have warmed markedlysince the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associatedwith severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure,and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipatestorylines of worst-case cold winter conditions andto understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as thecoldest winter on the historical record of Germany in 1963(-6.3°C or -3.4 sigma seasonal December–January–February(DJF) temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is stillpossible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based onmultiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulationconditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonalcold anomaly of about -4.9 to -4.7°C (best estimatesacross methods) under present-day climate. This would rankas the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second,we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditionsbased on two independent rare event sampling methods (climatemodel boosting and empirical importance sampling): awinter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in centralEurope today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazardsbecome less frequent and less intense in a warming climateoverall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of anextremely cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation andincreased vulnerability.
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
UR  - <Go to ISI:>//WOS:001274883300001
DO  - DOI:10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
UR  - https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1033580
ER  -