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@ARTICLE{Sippel:1033580,
      author       = {Sippel, Sebastian and Barnes, Clair and Cadiou, Camille and
                      Fischer, Erich and Kew, Sarah and Kretschmer, Marlene and
                      Philip, Sjoukje and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Singh,
                      Jitendra and Vautard, Robert and Yiou, Pascal},
      title        = {{C}ould an extremely cold central {E}uropean winter such as
                      1963 happen again despite climate change?},
      journal      = {Weather and climate dynamics},
      volume       = {5},
      number       = {3},
      issn         = {2698-4008},
      address      = {Göttingen},
      publisher    = {Copernicus Publications},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2024-06460},
      pages        = {943 - 957},
      year         = {2024},
      abstract     = {Central European winters have warmed markedlysince the
                      mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associatedwith
                      severe societal impacts on energy systems,
                      infrastructure,and public health. It is therefore crucial to
                      anticipatestorylines of worst-case cold winter conditions
                      andto understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as
                      thecoldest winter on the historical record of Germany in
                      1963(-6.3°C or -3.4 sigma seasonal
                      December–January–February(DJF) temperature anomaly
                      relative to 1981–2010), is stillpossible in a warming
                      climate. Here, we first show based onmultiple attribution
                      methods that a winter of similar circulationconditions to
                      1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonalcold anomaly of
                      about -4.9 to -4.7°C (best estimatesacross methods) under
                      present-day climate. This would rankas the second-coldest
                      winter in the last 75 years. Second,we conceive storylines
                      of worst-case cold winter conditionsbased on two independent
                      rare event sampling methods (climatemodel boosting and
                      empirical importance sampling): awinter as cold as 1963 is
                      still physically possible in centralEurope today, albeit
                      very unlikely. While cold winter hazardsbecome less frequent
                      and less intense in a warming climateoverall, it remains
                      crucial to anticipate the possibility of anextremely cold
                      winter to avoid potential maladaptation andincreased
                      vulnerability.},
      cin          = {JSC / ICE-4},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406 / I:(DE-Juel1)ICE-4-20101013},
      pnm          = {2113 - Future Weather and Extremes (POF4-211) / 5111 -
                      Domain-Specific Simulation $\&$ Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs)
                      and Research Groups (POF4-511) / 2112 - Climate Feedbacks
                      (POF4-211)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2113 / G:(DE-HGF)POF4-5111 /
                      G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2112},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:001274883300001},
      doi          = {10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1033580},
}