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001     1033580
005     20250203133222.0
024 7 _ |a 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
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024 7 _ |a 2698-4008
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024 7 _ |a 2698-4016
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024 7 _ |a 10.34734/FZJ-2024-06460
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037 _ _ |a FZJ-2024-06460
082 _ _ |a 550
100 1 _ |a Sippel, Sebastian
|0 0000-0002-4510-4458
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|e Corresponding author
245 _ _ |a Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?
260 _ _ |a Göttingen
|c 2024
|b Copernicus Publications
336 7 _ |a article
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520 _ _ |a Central European winters have warmed markedlysince the mid-20th century. Yet cold winters are still associatedwith severe societal impacts on energy systems, infrastructure,and public health. It is therefore crucial to anticipatestorylines of worst-case cold winter conditions andto understand whether an extremely cold winter, such as thecoldest winter on the historical record of Germany in 1963(-6.3°C or -3.4 sigma seasonal December–January–February(DJF) temperature anomaly relative to 1981–2010), is stillpossible in a warming climate. Here, we first show based onmultiple attribution methods that a winter of similar circulationconditions to 1963 would still lead to an extreme seasonalcold anomaly of about -4.9 to -4.7°C (best estimatesacross methods) under present-day climate. This would rankas the second-coldest winter in the last 75 years. Second,we conceive storylines of worst-case cold winter conditionsbased on two independent rare event sampling methods (climatemodel boosting and empirical importance sampling): awinter as cold as 1963 is still physically possible in centralEurope today, albeit very unlikely. While cold winter hazardsbecome less frequent and less intense in a warming climateoverall, it remains crucial to anticipate the possibility of anextremely cold winter to avoid potential maladaptation andincreased vulnerability.
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700 1 _ |a Barnes, Clair
|0 0000-0002-7806-7913
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700 1 _ |a Cadiou, Camille
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700 1 _ |a Fischer, Erich
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700 1 _ |a Kew, Sarah
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700 1 _ |a Kretschmer, Marlene
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700 1 _ |a Philip, Sjoukje
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700 1 _ |a Shepherd, Theodore G.
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700 1 _ |a Singh, Jitendra
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700 1 _ |a Vautard, Robert
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700 1 _ |a Yiou, Pascal
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773 _ _ |a 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024
|g Vol. 5, no. 3, p. 943 - 957
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|t Weather and climate dynamics
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|y 2024
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856 4 _ |u https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1033580/files/Sippel%202024.pdf
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