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@ARTICLE{Shaw:1033581,
      author       = {Shaw, Tiffany A. and Arias, Paola A. and Collins, Mat and
                      Coumou, Dim and Diedhiou, Arona and Garfinkel, Chaim I. and
                      Jain, Shipra and Roxy, Mathew Koll and Kretschmer, Marlene
                      and Leung, L. Ruby and Narsey, Sugata and Martius, Olivia
                      and Seager, Richard and Shepherd, Theodore G. and
                      Sörensson, Anna A. and Stephenson, Tannecia and Taylor,
                      Michael and Wang, Lin},
      title        = {{R}egional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and
                      ways forward},
      journal      = {Frontiers in climate},
      volume       = {6},
      issn         = {2624-9553},
      address      = {Lausanne},
      publisher    = {Frontiers Media},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2024-06461},
      pages        = {1391634},
      year         = {2024},
      abstract     = {Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some
                      observed regionalclimate changes, such as amplified Arctic
                      warming and land-sea warmingcontrasts have been predicted by
                      climate models. However, many otherobserved regional
                      changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface
                      temperatureand monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by
                      climate model ensembles evenwhen taking into account natural
                      internal variability and structural uncertaintiesin the
                      response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This
                      suggestsclimate model predictions may not fully reflect what
                      our future will look like.The discrepancies between models
                      and observations are not well understooddue to several real
                      and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the
                      “signal-tonoiseparadox” and real-world record-shattering
                      extremes falling outside of thepossible range predicted by
                      models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzlesand
                      limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably
                      predictingregional climate change is necessary in order to
                      communicate effectively aboutthe underlying drivers of
                      change, provide reliable information to stakeholders,enable
                      societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce
                      vulnerability.The challenges of achieving this are greater
                      in the Global South, especiallybecause of the lack of
                      observational data over long time periods and a lackof
                      scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address
                      discrepanciesbetween observations and models, it is
                      important to prioritize resources forunderstanding regional
                      climate predictions and analyzing where and whymodels and
                      observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of
                      biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding
                      can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such
                      as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution
                      models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy,
                      better quantification of forcing, and new observations.
                      Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities
                      that allow regional experts, particularly those from the
                      Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research.
                      This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing
                      simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional
                      climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional
                      climate communication are needed, which account for the
                      underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and
                      actionable information to stakeholders and the media.},
      cin          = {JSC / ICE-4},
      ddc          = {333.7},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406 / I:(DE-Juel1)ICE-4-20101013},
      pnm          = {2112 - Climate Feedbacks (POF4-211) / 5111 -
                      Domain-Specific Simulation $\&$ Data Life Cycle Labs (SDLs)
                      and Research Groups (POF4-511)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-2112 / G:(DE-HGF)POF4-5111},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:001224218200001},
      doi          = {10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1033581},
}