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@ARTICLE{Brauner:1046784,
      author       = {Brauner, Simon and Vögele, Stefan},
      title        = {{S}takeholder‐{D}riven {C}onsequence {M}odeling
                      {E}mploying {C}ross‐{I}mpact {B}alance {S}cenario
                      {A}nalysis},
      journal      = {Futures $\&$ foresight science},
      volume       = {7},
      number       = {3},
      issn         = {2573-5152},
      address      = {Hoboken, NJ},
      publisher    = {John Wiley $\&$ Sons},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2025-03951},
      pages        = {e70019},
      year         = {2025},
      abstract     = {Future research, including participatory research, can help
                      to explore stakeholder perspectives. This capability is
                      observable in scenario methods such as the cross-impact
                      balance analysis that aggregates factors from which
                      scenarios and further research opportunities are derivable.
                      In this methodologically oriented paper, a modeling idea is
                      explored, in which consequences are considered as flexible
                      factors in the modeling process, rather than drawing on
                      fixed impact-consequence linkages. The study proposes an
                      extension that explicitly models implicitly acting
                      consequences to increase stakeholder involvement and system
                      understanding. In this regard, the manuscript argues that
                      this approach enables reflection on the modeling and
                      potential results during this process, as they are
                      constructed around these consequences or, more generally,
                      system indicators. Thus, this approach provides an
                      opportunity to integrate cross-impact assessment more
                      effectively into stakeholder dialog by facilitating the
                      tracking and discussion of structures. The study also
                      illustrates the methodological approach by highlighting its
                      application to the topic of water governance. In addition to
                      the potential for utilizing this approach in workshops and
                      participatory co-modeling, the most significant initial
                      finding of this study is that the explication of
                      consequences could serve as a suitable foundation for
                      further studies focusing on stakeholder involvement or
                      impact analysis.},
      cin          = {ICE-2},
      ddc          = {330},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)ICE-2-20101013},
      pnm          = {1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111)
                      / 1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways
                      (POF4-111)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1111 / G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1112},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      doi          = {10.1002/ffo2.70019},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1046784},
}