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@ARTICLE{Jain:1048119,
      author       = {Jain, Shipra and Turkington, Thea and Tan, Wee Leng and
                      Schwartz, Chen and Scaife, Adam A. and Shepherd, Theodore
                      G.},
      title        = {{T}owards developing an operational {I}ndian ocean dipole
                      warning system for {S}outheast {A}sia},
      journal      = {Scientific reports},
      volume       = {15},
      number       = {1},
      issn         = {2045-2322},
      address      = {[London]},
      publisher    = {Springer Nature},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2025-04510},
      pages        = {14728},
      year         = {2025},
      abstract     = {Two strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events in
                      2019 and 2023 led to multiple disastersover Southeast Asia,
                      highlighting the need for warnings of IOD events. This paper
                      presents a stocktakeof the current criteria for IOD
                      monitoring and prediction and describes the development of
                      anIOD warning system for Southeast Asia. We examined how
                      subjective choices such as observationaldatasets, baseline
                      periods, and time averaging affect IOD event identification.
                      Our findings indicatethat the choice of sea-surface
                      temperature dataset and time averaging (monthly vs.
                      3-monthly mean)lead to marked differences in the Dipole Mode
                      Index (DMI), the index used for the monitoring andprediction
                      of IOD events, and hence between various centers on IOD
                      state. The southern MaritimeContinent can experience the
                      impact of the IOD on rainfall even when the IOD has not met
                      the currentoperational criterion, suggesting a need for an
                      impact-based threshold for the IOD. We assess the skillof
                      models in capturing the strength and phase of the IOD and
                      report errors in IOD predictions. Whilemost models are
                      skillful in capturing the active phase of the IOD, many
                      models have an overactiveIOD strength. Calibration of
                      DMI-based monitoring products is therefore recommended for
                      the mostskilful IOD predictions. Finally, we describe an
                      objective standard operating procedure to assist
                      climateforecasters in issuing timely alerts of IOD events.},
      cin          = {JSC},
      ddc          = {600},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406},
      pnm          = {5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation $\&$ Data Life Cycle Labs
                      (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-5111},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      doi          = {10.1038/s41598-025-99261-9},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1048119},
}