% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded.  This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.

@ARTICLE{Mindlin:1048120,
      author       = {Mindlin, Julia and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Osman, Marisol
                      and Vera, Carolina S. and Kretschmer, Marlene},
      title        = {{E}xplaining and predicting the {S}outhern {H}emisphere
                      eddy-driven jet},
      journal      = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
                      United States of America},
      volume       = {122},
      number       = {29},
      issn         = {0027-8424},
      address      = {Washington, DC},
      publisher    = {National Acad. of Sciences},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2025-04511},
      pages        = {e2500697122},
      year         = {2025},
      abstract     = {The summertime eddy-driven jet (EDJ) in the Southern
                      Hemisphere is a critical mediatorbetween regional climate
                      and large-scale phenomena, guiding synoptic systems
                      thatshape weather patterns. Uncertainties in global climate
                      models (GCMs)-particularlyin projecting changes in remote
                      drivers like tropical warming, stratospheric polarvortex
                      strengthening, and asymmetric tropical Pacific
                      warming-hinder predictions ofEDJ trends and associated
                      regional outcomes. In this study, we develop a
                      causalframework that combines observations, reanalysis
                      datasets, and storylines estimatedfrom the Coupled Model
                      Intercomparison Project (CMIP) projections to attributepast
                      EDJ changes and predict plausible future trajectories. Our
                      findings indicate thattropical warming has evolved along the
                      low end of plausible CMIP trajectories, whilethe
                      stratospheric polar vortex shows robust strengthening, both
                      strongly influencingobserved EDJ trends. Our results suggest
                      that $50\%$ of the observed EDJ latitudeshift can be
                      directly attributed to global warming (GW), and the
                      remaining $50\%$ toremote drivers whose attribution
                      toGWremains uncertain. Importantly,GCMsappearto accurately
                      estimate the observed latitudinal shifts but underestimate
                      the observedstrengthening of the EDJ, while the proposed
                      storylines are able to capture the observedtrend. By
                      integrating causal inference with climate storylines, our
                      approach narrowsthe divide between attribution and
                      prediction, offering a physically grounded methodto estimate
                      plausible pathways of future climate change.},
      cin          = {JSC},
      ddc          = {500},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)JSC-20090406},
      pnm          = {5111 - Domain-Specific Simulation $\&$ Data Life Cycle Labs
                      (SDLs) and Research Groups (POF4-511)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-5111},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      doi          = {10.1073/pnas.2500697122},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1048120},
}