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024 7 _ |a 10.1038/s41467-025-67593-9
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024 7 _ |a 10.34734/FZJ-2026-00066
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037 _ _ |a FZJ-2026-00066
041 _ _ |a English
082 _ _ |a 500
100 1 _ |a Frey, Ulrich Joachim
|0 0000-0002-9803-1336
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|e Corresponding author
245 _ _ |a The benefits of exploring a large scenario space for future energy systems
260 _ _ |a [London]
|c 2026
|b Springer Nature
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520 _ _ |a Energy scenario analysis with optimization approaches rarely goes beyond a small number of scenarios. Disadvantages include limited coverage of uncertainties and assumptions, and a limited ability to provide robust policy advice. We present an approach that enables the multi-criterial evaluation of more than 11,000 scenarios and demonstrate it for the German power system. We vary both a wide range of input parameters and method choices. The resulting scenarios are assessed through a number of indicators on affordability, supply-security and sustainability. The most significant impacts on the results stem from considering multiple weather years. Furthermore, we estimate the number of runs required for robust energy systems analyses – well over 100 scenarios are needed. Nevertheless, fewer scenarios may be sufficient for limited scopes. Our analysis also underlines a challenge for future energy system design: cost-efficient decarbonization while conserving natural resources.
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536 _ _ |a Verbundvorhaben: UNSEEN ' Bewertung der Unsicherheiten in linear optimierenden Energiesystem-Modellen unter Zuhilfenahme Neuronaler Netze, Teilvorhaben: Entwicklung einer integrierten HPC-Workflow Umgebung zur Kopplung von Optimierungsmethoden mit Methode (03EI1004F)
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700 1 _ |a Cao, Karl-Kiên
|0 0000-0002-9720-0337
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700 1 _ |a Sasanpour, Shima
|0 0000-0002-7502-6841
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700 1 _ |a Buschmann, Jan
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700 1 _ |a Breuer, Thomas
|0 P:(DE-Juel1)138707
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773 _ _ |a 10.1038/s41467-025-67593-9
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|t Nature Communications
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856 4 _ |u https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1050254/files/s41467-025-67593-9.pdf
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