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@ARTICLE{Mayer:1051587,
      author       = {Mayer, Pablo and Hartmann, Carsten and Cramer, Eike and
                      Dahmen, Manuel and Witthaut, Dirk},
      title        = {{P}robabilistic {P}rediction of the {A}rea {C}ontrol
                      {E}rror {U}sing {N}ormalizing {F}lows},
      journal      = {ACM SIGEnergy energy informatics review},
      volume       = {5},
      number       = {3},
      issn         = {2770-5331},
      address      = {New York, NY},
      publisher    = {ACM},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2026-00515},
      pages        = {66 - 76},
      year         = {2025},
      abstract     = {Balancing generation and load is a central challenge in
                      power systems, particularly those with a high share of
                      renewable generation. The area control error (ACE)
                      quantifies the current power mismatch in a certain area of
                      the power grid and thus provides a central input for
                      balancing and control. Accurate forecasting of this quantity
                      can facilitate rapid control actions and thus improve grid
                      stability. In this contribution, we introduce a
                      probabilistic forecasting model for the ACE using a deep
                      generative neural network model called normalizing flow. Our
                      model generates scenarios for every quarter hour of the day
                      using conditional features such as the generation schedules.
                      We demonstrate that the generative model outperforms
                      elementary benchmark models.},
      cin          = {ICE-1},
      ddc          = {333.7},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)ICE-1-20170217},
      pnm          = {1121 - Digitalization and Systems Technology for
                      Flexibility Solutions (POF4-112)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1121},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      doi          = {10.1145/3777518.3777524},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1051587},
}