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| Home > Publications database > Irreversibility and Compliance in Regional Nuclear Disarmament: Insights from a Tabletop Exercise |
| Conference Presentation (Other) | FZJ-2026-00815 |
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2025
Abstract: An effective implementation and compliance framework is essential for any future nuclear disarmament treaty. Although various elements have been proposed, a comprehensive and cohesive approach that effectively deters rearmament remains elusive. To help address this gap, the VeSPoTec research consortium conducted a 1.5-day tabletop exercise focused on irreversibility and compliance in a regional nuclear disarmament scenario. The exercise brought together experts from international organizations, think tanks, and research institutions to simulate the implementation and verification of a fictional regional nuclear disarmament agreement involving three hypothetical nuclear-armed states. Participants explored the prospective role and mandate of a Regional Verification Organization (RVO) while negotiating tailored, state-specific measures to ensure compliance and irreversibility in the disarmament process.The simulation was structured around three key components: defining the mandate of the RVO, negotiating state-specific verification strategies, and testing the framework through compliance scenarios. This approach allowed participants to address practical challenges in implementing regionally tailored disarmament agreements while maintaining synchronized progress among state parties with different nuclear capabilities and fissile material stocks.During the exercise, the ad hoc development of a comprehensive disarmament framework was instrumental in uncovering the key challenges that future efforts will need to address. Participants were tasked with defining a suitable institutional and legal scope of the RVO while reconciling diverging technical approaches to disarmament. Such divergences for instance emerged around how to ensure irreversibility, with experts placing varying emphasis on different components of the nuclear fuel cycle. Because all participants represented nuclear-armed states, proposed verification approaches tended to favour confidentiality and limited oversight. The absence of non-nuclear-armed state perspectives, which might have favoured more intrusive measures, highlighted how stakeholder identify can shape verification design. Interestingly, these constraints allowed participants to explore creative options for increasing the costs of reversal early in the process with minimal interference.Playing out a scenario based on limited trust between state parties allowed the participants to address what level of confidence might be sufficient to determine compliance. It also stimulated discussions around exit strategies, such as maintaining certain capabilities, ensuring readiness to re-arm, and drawing the line between hedging and legitimate deterrence actions. Moreover, the presence of differing nuclear capacities and fissile material stocks emphasized the complexity of pursuing equal standards in state-RVO agreements.Beyond identifying such challenges, the exercise fostered dialogue on enhancing treaty robustness – underscoring the role of capacity building, technological cooperation, and selective transparency in fostering mutual trust and balancing disarmament with national security and industrial interests. The diverse backgrounds of participants enabled discussions that blended technical and political perspectives with regional insights from the Middle East, South and East Asia, the United States, and Europe.Overall, the VeSPoTec tabletop exercise highlights the key challenges in implementing regionally tailored disarmament agreements. By highlighting the need to reconcile divergent perspectives in developing coherent verification frameworks, the exercise provides valuable insights that should inform future disarmament efforts and negotiations.
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