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| Home > Publications database > A Systems-Based Framework for Effective Verification of Irreversible Nuclear Disarmament |
| Home > Publications database > A Systems-Based Framework for Effective Verification of Irreversible Nuclear Disarmament |
| Conference Presentation (Other) | FZJ-2026-01335 |
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2025
Abstract: Effective verification of irreversible nuclear disarmament requires innovative frameworks capable of addressing the inherent complexities and risks of disarmament processes. Verification authorities must strategically allocate their limited annual inspections across various categories, necessitating a careful balance of priorities regarding inspection objectives, timing, and frequency. Given the importance of these decisions, the lack of research adopting a holistic, systems-level perspective that prioritizes long-term verification activities in line with planned steps toward irreversibility is concerning. Moreover, the effectiveness of verification strategies at different stages of disarmament-particularly in the post-disarmament period-has not been adequately examined. The State-Level Concept (SLC), developed by the IAEA to enhance the effectiveness of nuclear safeguards implementation, represents a transformative shift by moving from facility-specific evaluations to comprehensive state-level assessments. At its core is Acquisition Path Analysis (APA), which systematically identifies and evaluates potential pathways a state could exploit to acquire weapons-usable material. Complementing this, the IAEA's physical model provides a tailored framework that maps the technical processes required to transform source material into weapons-usable nuclear material, customized to each state's unique nuclear infrastructure. By integrating a systems-based approach and physical modeling, the SLC could offer a transparent framework to define precise verification objectives, analyze technically plausible pathways, and prioritize measures strategically, enhancing effectiveness of disarmament treaties. Therefore , this study proposes a systems-based approach to disarmament verification, focusing on optimally allocating limited inspection resources across different nuclear disarmament phases. Adapted physical model is used to address state-specific nuclear infrastructures, incorporating elements such as civilian and military facilities. Through directed graph modeling, the research identifies and ranks technically plausible cheating pathways, with particular emphasis on concealed activities during warhead dismantlement and weapon-usable material disposition. It is coupled with strategic assessments using game theory to optimize inspection priorities and resource allocation. To ground the analysis, a comparative case study examines how different irreversibility steps in disarmament — specifically during the drawdown and complete end-state phases — influence the allocation of verification resources. Verification strategies were tailored to each phase, with resources shifting from verifying the dismantlement of weapons to monitoring against potential rearmament. The findings highlight the critical importance of strategic resource allocation; by directing verification efforts toward the highest-risk pathways, inspection effectiveness increased without additional resources. Another key finding is that although increased budgets generally enhance verification effectiveness, without implementation of safeguards, effectiveness plateaus and cannot reach its maximum. This underscores that strategic resource allocation and cost-effective verification technologies are more crucial than simply increasing funding. These findings yield critical insights for policymakers and international bodies in crafting credible and effective verification frameworks. By integrating a physical model with risk-based resource allocation, the approach ensures flexibility and applicability across a range of geopolitical settings.
Keyword(s): Others (2nd)
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