Contribution to a conference proceedings

FZJ-2026-01336

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Optimizing Verification Strategies for Irreversible Nuclear Disarmament: A Systems-Based Approach

Yanikömer, N.FZJ* ; Niemeyer, I.FZJ*

2025
Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament Uppsala University

Abstract: An effective verification process is crucial for building trust and confidence among nuclear-armed states in pursuit of nuclear disarmament. Nevertheless, it poses significant challenges, including ensuring irreversibility, safeguarding sensitive information, and enhancing oversight. This study presents a systems-based framework to assess and optimize verification strategies across distinct disarmament phases. Using graph theory, potential rearmament paths were mapped, focusing on the most feasible strategy states that could be used to reassemble nuclear capabilities. This analysis was complemented by a two-person game theory model designed to identify optimal verification strategies in response to these pathways. A comparative case study of the two states illustrates how differing state-level characteristics influence the distribution of verification resources during the drawdown and complete-end phases. The results show that verification effectiveness reaches a plateau beyond specific budget levels; however, the integration of safeguards notably enhances deterrence. The success of achieving adequate irreversibility depends on strategic resource allocation and the comprehensive legal framework governing verification activities.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Nukleare Entsorgung (IFN-2)

Research Program(s):

1. 1412 - Predisposal (POF4-141) (POF4-141)
2. BMBF 01UG2210A - Verbundvorhaben: VeSPoTec - Zentrum für interdisziplinär-integrierte Verifikationsforschung. Teilvorhaben: Naturwissenschaftlich-interdisziplinäre Verifikation, Verifikationsregime und Umsetzungsstrategien für das Zentrum (01UG2210A) (01UG2210A)

Appears in the scientific report 2025

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