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| Home > Publications database > A Systems-Based Approach to Disarmament Verification |
| Poster (Other) | FZJ-2026-01337 |
2025
Abstract: Nuclear disarmament verification remains one of the most complex challenges in global security, requiring a balance between technical precision and geopolitical trust-building. Traditional verification frameworks have predominantly focused on material accounting, such as tracking warheads, fissile materials, and facilities, in order to ensure compliance with disarmament commitments. While these methods provide foundational transparency, they often overlook the dynamic interdependencies between technical verification mechanisms and the legal, institutional, and diplomatic architectures that govern their implementation. This fragmented approach risks creating systemic gaps, particularly under treaties such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which demand integrated compliance frameworks to prevent covert proliferation.This research introduces a novel systems-based framework that reconceptualizes nuclear disarmament verification as an emergent property arising from the dynamic interactions of interconnected subsystems. The study constructs this perspective by identifying and mapping nine core subsystems including the military and civilian fuel cycles, warhead lifecycle, delivery systems, and regulatory oversight, integral to a state's nuclear program, and establishing feedback relationships between technical, legal, institutional, and diplomatic dimensions.The framework is empirically applied to the case of Kazakhstan, which inherited and then relinquished the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal after the Soviet Union’s collapse. Using causal loop diagramming, the study models the evolution of Kazakhstan’s verification regime over three decades, identifying six principal feedback loops—four reinforcing and two balancing—that shaped its trajectory. Reinforcing loops fostered cycles of transparency, cooperation, and institutional trust, attracting international support and accelerating disarmament. Balancing loops, such as the diversion of resources to address legacy radioactive contamination, introduced necessary constraints and equilibrium.The findings demonstrate that verification is not a static, technology-driven process but an adaptive system shaped by political will, institutional capacity, and international partnerships. By recognizing these systemic interconnections, the proposed framework offers actionable insights for designing and implementing future disarmament treaties.
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