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@INPROCEEDINGS{Jungblut:1054081,
author = {Jungblut, Edgar and Grube, Thomas and Linssen, Jochen and
Chapman, Andrew},
title = {{D}river {S}hortages and {C}ountermeasures in {A}ging
{S}ocieties},
reportid = {FZJ-2026-01715},
year = {2026},
abstract = {According to the World Bank Group, Japan has the most
advanced aging population in the world. In 2024,
approximately $30\%$ of the population was over the age of
65, compared to $23\%$ in Germany and $18\%$ in the United
States. At the same time, Japan relies heavily on road-based
freight. According to the Japanese Trucking Association,
trucks accounted for $91.4\%$ of freight deliveries by
tonnage in 2024. However, poor working conditions, including
long hours and low wages, are leading to a decrease in the
number of truck drivers. The trucking industry and the
Japanese government recognize the aging population as an
issue affecting the availability of truck drivers and have
proposed several solutions, ranging from extending the
retirement age to using automated vehicles.This paper will
quantitatively assess two approaches to mitigate future
driver shortages and provide policy guidance. On one hand,
we consider reducing experience restrictions for drivers and
extending the retirement age as measures to increase driver
supply. On the other hand, we explore raising truck speed
limits and using automated vehicles as measures to decrease
driver demand.The analyses focus on Japanese road freight
transport. First, the current situation is assessed using
demographics, employment, and work time statistics, as well
as the recently introduced 960-hour overtime limit. Next,
future driver supply and demand are estimated based on
population and freight volume forecasts until 2050. Finally,
measures to counter driver shortages are investigated.
First, we investigate the Japanese government’s measure of
raising truck speed limits on expressways from 80 km/h to 90
km/h to address driver shortages caused by the 960-hour
overtime limit. Transport performance is calculated based on
possible driving distances under regular and increased speed
limits. Second, reducing experience barriers to enable more
people to become truck drivers is examined. The age
distribution of truck drivers is compared to that of the
general population to identify groups of potential truck
drivers. Third, the possibility of increasing the retirement
age of truck drivers to retain more drivers is investigated.
Lastly, utilizing automated vehicles to reduce driver demand
is examined. The potential of automated highway driving is
analyzed by modeling truck traffic flows on Japanese
highways and identifying highly utilized corridors.The
results of the analysis indicate that, without further
action, driver demand will exceed driver supply. Supply will
decrease by $25\%$ from 2020 to 2050, while demand will only
decrease by $11\%$ during that time. Overtime limits could
exacerbate the situation. The 960-hour overtime limit
introduced in 2024 will have a negligible impact on driver
demand; however, a 360-hour limit would increase demand by
$10\%.$ Conversely, the 360-hour limit would also increase
the number of people willing to become truck drivers because
it is consistent with Japan's general overtime limit and
would align working hours with those of other industries.
The analysis shows that the Japanese government’s measure
of increasing truck speed limits to counter driver shortages
caused by the 960-hour limit is misguided and harmful. As
previously mentioned, the overtime limit does not cause
significant shortages, and even if it did, increased truck
speed would not be sufficient to prevent delays in long-haul
transport, which is the section of the trucking industry
most affected by the overtime limit. While average driving
speeds would increase by $5\%,$ the overtime limit would
reduce working time by 8 to $11\%$ for affected drivers. At
the same time, higher driving speeds increase energy demand
and crash risks. As a medium-term solution, reducing
experience restrictions for truck drivers could alleviate
driver shortages. Lowering entry barriers could increase the
number of drivers by $5\%.$ Increasing the retirement age to
70 could increase the number of drivers by $8\%$ by 2025 and
up to $12\%$ by 2040. However, retaining older drivers
increases crash risks and makes truck driving jobs less
attractive compared to other industries, which could lead to
the opposite effect: an overall decrease in the number of
drivers. In the long term, it may be difficult to increase
the number of truck drivers in the face of an overall
shrinking workforce and growing competition between
industries. Therefore, measures to reduce driver demand are
needed. One efficient measure would be to introduce
automated vehicles on highly utilized freight corridors. In
Japan, freight volumes are highly concentrated. Enabling
automated driving on just $3.5\%$ of the highway network
affects $51.5\%$ of transport performance. Although the
analysis focused on Japan, other developed countries will
face similar challenges due to their aging populations and
can draw lessons from Japan's experience.},
month = {Sep},
date = {2026-09-09},
organization = {European Transport Conference, Porto
(Portugal), 9 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2026},
cin = {ICE-2},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)ICE-2-20101013},
pnm = {1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111)
/ 1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways
(POF4-111)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1111 / G:(DE-HGF)POF4-1112},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)1},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1054081},
}
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