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| 001 | 1054081 | ||
| 005 | 20260206202204.0 | ||
| 037 | _ | _ | |a FZJ-2026-01715 |
| 100 | 1 | _ | |a Jungblut, Edgar |0 P:(DE-Juel1)190111 |b 0 |e Corresponding author |u fzj |
| 111 | 2 | _ | |a European Transport Conference |c Porto |d 2026-09-09 - 2026-09-11 |w Portugal |
| 245 | _ | _ | |a Driver Shortages and Countermeasures in Aging Societies |
| 260 | _ | _ | |c 2026 |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a Abstract |b abstract |m abstract |0 PUB:(DE-HGF)1 |s 1770383236_17968 |2 PUB:(DE-HGF) |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a Conference Paper |0 33 |2 EndNote |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a INPROCEEDINGS |2 BibTeX |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a conferenceObject |2 DRIVER |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a Output Types/Conference Abstract |2 DataCite |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a OTHER |2 ORCID |
| 520 | _ | _ | |a According to the World Bank Group, Japan has the most advanced aging population in the world. In 2024, approximately 30% of the population was over the age of 65, compared to 23% in Germany and 18% in the United States. At the same time, Japan relies heavily on road-based freight. According to the Japanese Trucking Association, trucks accounted for 91.4% of freight deliveries by tonnage in 2024. However, poor working conditions, including long hours and low wages, are leading to a decrease in the number of truck drivers. The trucking industry and the Japanese government recognize the aging population as an issue affecting the availability of truck drivers and have proposed several solutions, ranging from extending the retirement age to using automated vehicles.This paper will quantitatively assess two approaches to mitigate future driver shortages and provide policy guidance. On one hand, we consider reducing experience restrictions for drivers and extending the retirement age as measures to increase driver supply. On the other hand, we explore raising truck speed limits and using automated vehicles as measures to decrease driver demand.The analyses focus on Japanese road freight transport. First, the current situation is assessed using demographics, employment, and work time statistics, as well as the recently introduced 960-hour overtime limit. Next, future driver supply and demand are estimated based on population and freight volume forecasts until 2050. Finally, measures to counter driver shortages are investigated. First, we investigate the Japanese government’s measure of raising truck speed limits on expressways from 80 km/h to 90 km/h to address driver shortages caused by the 960-hour overtime limit. Transport performance is calculated based on possible driving distances under regular and increased speed limits. Second, reducing experience barriers to enable more people to become truck drivers is examined. The age distribution of truck drivers is compared to that of the general population to identify groups of potential truck drivers. Third, the possibility of increasing the retirement age of truck drivers to retain more drivers is investigated. Lastly, utilizing automated vehicles to reduce driver demand is examined. The potential of automated highway driving is analyzed by modeling truck traffic flows on Japanese highways and identifying highly utilized corridors.The results of the analysis indicate that, without further action, driver demand will exceed driver supply. Supply will decrease by 25% from 2020 to 2050, while demand will only decrease by 11% during that time. Overtime limits could exacerbate the situation. The 960-hour overtime limit introduced in 2024 will have a negligible impact on driver demand; however, a 360-hour limit would increase demand by 10%. Conversely, the 360-hour limit would also increase the number of people willing to become truck drivers because it is consistent with Japan's general overtime limit and would align working hours with those of other industries. The analysis shows that the Japanese government’s measure of increasing truck speed limits to counter driver shortages caused by the 960-hour limit is misguided and harmful. As previously mentioned, the overtime limit does not cause significant shortages, and even if it did, increased truck speed would not be sufficient to prevent delays in long-haul transport, which is the section of the trucking industry most affected by the overtime limit. While average driving speeds would increase by 5%, the overtime limit would reduce working time by 8 to 11% for affected drivers. At the same time, higher driving speeds increase energy demand and crash risks. As a medium-term solution, reducing experience restrictions for truck drivers could alleviate driver shortages. Lowering entry barriers could increase the number of drivers by 5%. Increasing the retirement age to 70 could increase the number of drivers by 8% by 2025 and up to 12% by 2040. However, retaining older drivers increases crash risks and makes truck driving jobs less attractive compared to other industries, which could lead to the opposite effect: an overall decrease in the number of drivers. In the long term, it may be difficult to increase the number of truck drivers in the face of an overall shrinking workforce and growing competition between industries. Therefore, measures to reduce driver demand are needed. One efficient measure would be to introduce automated vehicles on highly utilized freight corridors. In Japan, freight volumes are highly concentrated. Enabling automated driving on just 3.5% of the highway network affects 51.5% of transport performance. Although the analysis focused on Japan, other developed countries will face similar challenges due to their aging populations and can draw lessons from Japan's experience. |
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| 700 | 1 | _ | |a Grube, Thomas |0 P:(DE-Juel1)129852 |b 1 |u fzj |
| 700 | 1 | _ | |a Linssen, Jochen |0 P:(DE-Juel1)130470 |b 2 |u fzj |
| 700 | 1 | _ | |a Chapman, Andrew |0 P:(DE-HGF)0 |b 3 |
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| 914 | 1 | _ | |y 2026 |
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