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| Home > Publications database > Shen Materials Matter: Endogenous Resource Constraints in Global Energy System Optimization > print |
| 001 | 1054085 | ||
| 005 | 20260206202204.0 | ||
| 037 | _ | _ | |a FZJ-2026-01719 |
| 100 | 1 | _ | |a Söltzer, Lana |0 P:(DE-Juel1)196068 |b 0 |e Corresponding author |u fzj |
| 111 | 2 | _ | |a ISIE-SEM 2026 |c Cambridge |d 2026-07-06 - 2026-07-08 |w UK |
| 245 | _ | _ | |a Shen Materials Matter: Endogenous Resource Constraints in Global Energy System Optimization |
| 260 | _ | _ | |c 2026 |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a Abstract |b abstract |m abstract |0 PUB:(DE-HGF)1 |s 1770383170_19390 |2 PUB:(DE-HGF) |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a Conference Paper |0 33 |2 EndNote |
| 336 | 7 | _ | |a INPROCEEDINGS |2 BibTeX |
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| 336 | 7 | _ | |a Output Types/Conference Abstract |2 DataCite |
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| 520 | _ | _ | |a As clean technologies are adopted more widely as part of the energy transition, more attention is being given to the availability of critical materials that could constrain the expansion of low-carbon infrastructure. Current ex-post analyses of electrolyzers and batteries, based on planned capacity expansions and market shares, indicate that the demand for certain critical raw materials will exceed the available supply, even when accounting for recycling and battery reuse [1, 2]. Nevertheless, the majority of energy scenarios still treat material availability as an external factor or assume an unlimited supply in their underlying energy system models. While recent advances have begun to acknowledge material bottlenecks, many approaches rely on external accounting layers as a post-processing step or use abstract criticality indicators. Others lack an endogenous representation of recycling and supply dynamics. Consequently, material constraints rarely influence energy scenarios. This study, therefore, addresses the methodological gap in representing material availability, circularity, and resource scarcity within long-term energy system models. Here, we demonstrate that introducing materials as explicit commodities, subject to balance constraints, a dynamically emerging secondary supply, and cumulative primary resource limits, fundamentally alters the optimal pathways of the system compared to conventional, unconstrained resource models. Using the ETHOS.FINE.Resources extension, which we have developed for the open-source ETHOS.FINE framework [3], we demonstrate that technology deployment is directly influenced by material feasibility, as well as by cost and operational constraints. Unlike prevailing modelling practice, secondary material supply arises endogenously from past infrastructure stocks, thereby linking historical investment decisions to future system feasibility. This reveals system-level effects that remain invisible in post-processing approaches, including shifts towards alternative technology portfolios, altered deployment timing, and the increased strategic value of recycling capacity. We apply the framework to a regionalized global model spanning eleven world regions characterized by their roles as major material importers and exporters. The model encompasses key low-carbon technologies, such as photovoltaics, onshore and offshore wind, batteries (NMC and LFP), and electrolyzers (PEM and AEL), as well as a wide range of critical materials (Li, Ni, Co, Cu, Si, Pt, Ir, Dy, and Nd). Primary material supply is modelled endogenously through the explicit representation of existing mining operations and new mine investments, including by-product modelling and geological reserve constraints, as well as endogenous secondary supply from recycling. This allows us to consistently quantify global material requirements, identify potential bottlenecks, and explore mitigation strategies such as ramping up recycling, substitution, and supply diversification. By incorporating material demand, recycling potential, and primary supply into the model, the approach enables a systematic assessment of circular economy strategies and resource efficiency pathways, as well as their implications for energy system design and environmental impact. The framework enables the monitoring of progress towards physically feasible transition pathways at national and global scales, revealing trade-offs between cost-optimal and material-realizable energy systems. By unifying energy system optimization and resource dynamics, ETHOS.FINE.Resources supports more physically credible transition assessments and provides a quantitative basis for informing critical materials policy, circular economy strategies, and resilient industrial planning within urgent decarbonization timeframes. Beyond our findings, we aim to engage in a critical discussion with the ISIE-SEM conference audience regarding the most promising avenues for further material-induced constraints, as well as non-technical mitigation strategies and the methodological options for incorporating them endogenously. Finally, we will jointly seek feedback on the best strategies to support the community with our tools and data. |
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| 700 | 1 | _ | |a Wortmann, Bernhard |0 P:(DE-Juel1)200122 |b 1 |u fzj |
| 700 | 1 | _ | |a Heinrichs, Heidi |0 P:(DE-Juel1)145221 |b 2 |u fzj |
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