Contribution to a conference proceedings

FZJ-2026-04356

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Systematic review of uncertainty analysis in prospective life cycle assessment of emerging technologiesTagungsband Ökobilanz-Werkstatt 2025

Zahedi Nezhad, S. ; Wulf, C.FZJ* ; Zapp, P.FZJ* ; Minke, C.

20262026
Pforzheim University of Applied Sciences

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.60846/M22M-5838

Abstract: Uncertainty as an inherent part of prospective Life Cycle Assessment (pLCA), although central, is addressed inconsistently, especially for technologies at low technology readiness level (low-TRL). The present study provides preliminary results of a systematic literature review using the PRISMA2020 framework and bibliometric analysis with the aim of identifying the progress of uncertainty analysis since the emergence of the pLCA research field. The literature review covers literature from 2000 to present to determine conceptual and methodological development. The preliminary results indicate that the methodological and conceptual foundations of uncertainty quantification, using both deterministic and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, have developed in parallel with the field’s growth. However, their application remains inconsistent. In most cases, researchers relied on sensitivity and scenario analysis, with limited probabilistic analysis. The preliminary results also highlight that a great portion of the methodological advances are led by a concentrated group of researchers. Hence, there is a need for diverse participation and collaboration within the pLCA research community to overcome these shortcomings.

Keyword(s): Prospective life cycle assessment ; Emerging technology ; Uncertainty analysis ; Framework ; Prisma2020 ; Scale-up ; Decision-making

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Jülicher Systemanalyse (ICE-2)

Research Program(s):

1. 1111 - Effective System Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)
2. 1112 - Societally Feasible Transformation Pathways (POF4-111) (POF4-111)

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