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@ARTICLE{Valladares:133590,
      author       = {Valladares, F. and Matesanz, S. and Araujo, M. and
                      Balaguer, L. and Benito, M. and Cornwell, W. and Gianoli, E.
                      and Guilhaumon, F. and van Kleunen, M. and Naya, D.E. and
                      Nicotra, A. and Poorter, Hendrik and Zavala, M.A.},
      title        = {{T}he effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation
                      on forecasts pf species range shifts under climate change},
      journal      = {Ecology letters},
      volume       = {17},
      number       = {11},
      issn         = {1461-023x},
      address      = {Oxford [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2013-02010},
      pages        = {1351–1364},
      year         = {2014},
      abstract     = {Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and
                      conservation biology studies; however, species are not
                      uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes
                      locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We
                      examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and
                      phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a
                      warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model
                      linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five
                      alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with
                      existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological
                      niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each
                      intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual
                      species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally,
                      we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data
                      on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We
                      show that when population differentiation is accounted for
                      and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range
                      shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than
                      those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously
                      high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable
                      population-level data are not available for most species so
                      identifying general patterns of population differentiation
                      could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed
                      contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of
                      integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical
                      research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.},
      cin          = {IBG-2},
      ddc          = {570},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-2-20101118},
      pnm          = {242 - Sustainable Bioproduction (POF2-242) / 89582 - Plant
                      Science (POF2-89582)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF2-242 / G:(DE-HGF)POF2-89582},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000345215900002},
      pubmed       = {pmid:25205436},
      doi          = {10.1111/ele.12348},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/133590},
}