TY  - JOUR
AU  - Flemming, J.
AU  - Inness, A.
AU  - Jones, L.
AU  - Eskes, H.J.
AU  - Huijnen, V.
AU  - Schultz, M.G.
AU  - Stein, O.
AU  - Cariolle, D.
AU  - Kinnison, D.
AU  - Brasseur, G.
TI  - Forecasts and assimilation experiments of the Antarctic ozone hole 2008
JO  - Atmospheric chemistry and physics
VL  - 11
SN  - 1680-7316
CY  - Katlenburg-Lindau
PB  - EGU
M1  - PreJuSER-14802
SP  - 1961-1977
PY  - 2011
N1  - We thank Rossana Dragani and Martin Suttie for helpful discussions on satellite observation errors. The ozone sonde data used in this publication were obtained as part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) and are publicly available from http://www.ndacc.org and http://www.woudc.org. The ozone soundings were carried out by Alfred Wegener Institute-Neumayer (AWI-NM), University of Wyoming, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SNMA), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite data were downloaded from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI). The work has been carried out in the GEMS and the MACC project, which are funded by the European Commission under the Sixth and Seventh Research Framework Programme, contract numbers SIP4-CT-2004-516099 and 218793.
AB  - The 2008 Antarctic ozone hole was one of the largest and most long-lived in recent years. Predictions of the ozone hole were made in near-real time (NRT) and hindcast mode with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The forecasts were carried out both with and without assimilation of satellite observations from multiple instruments to provide more realistic initial conditions. Three different chemistry schemes were applied for the description of stratospheric ozone chemistry: (i) a linearization of the ozone chemistry, (ii) the stratospheric chemical mechanism of the Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 3, (MOZART-3) and (iii) the relaxation to climatology as implemented in the Transport Model, version 5, (TM5). The IFS uses the latter two schemes by means of a two-way coupled system. Without assimilation, the forecasts showed model-specific shortcomings in predicting start time, extent and duration of the ozone hole. The assimilation of satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Solar Backscattering Ultraviolet radiometer (SBUV-2) and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) led to a significant improvement of the forecasts when compared with total columns and vertical profiles from ozone sondes. The combined assimilation of observations from multiple instruments helped to overcome limitations of the ultraviolet (UV) sensors at low solar elevation over Antarctica. The assimilation of data from MLS was crucial to obtain a good agreement with the observed ozone profiles both in the polar stratosphere and troposphere. The ozone analyses by the three model configurations were very similar despite the different underlying chemistry schemes. Using ozone analyses as initial conditions had a very beneficial but variable effect on the predictability of the ozone hole over 15 days. The initialized forecasts with the MOZART-3 chemistry produced the best predictions of the increasing ozone hole whereas the linear scheme showed the best results during the ozonehole closure.
KW  - J (WoSType)
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
UR  - <Go to ISI:>//WOS:000288368900008
DO  - DOI:10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011
UR  - https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/14802
ER  -