% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded. This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.
@ARTICLE{Flemming:14802,
author = {Flemming, J. and Inness, A. and Jones, L. and Eskes, H.J.
and Huijnen, V. and Schultz, M.G. and Stein, O. and
Cariolle, D. and Kinnison, D. and Brasseur, G.},
title = {{F}orecasts and assimilation experiments of the {A}ntarctic
ozone hole 2008},
journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
volume = {11},
issn = {1680-7316},
address = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
publisher = {EGU},
reportid = {PreJuSER-14802},
pages = {1961-1977},
year = {2011},
note = {We thank Rossana Dragani and Martin Suttie for helpful
discussions on satellite observation errors. The ozone sonde
data used in this publication were obtained as part of the
Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change
(NDACC) and the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data
Centre (WOUDC) and are publicly available from
http://www.ndacc.org and http://www.woudc.org. The ozone
soundings were carried out by Alfred Wegener
Institute-Neumayer (AWI-NM), University of Wyoming, Finnish
Meteorological Institute (FMI), National Meteorological
Service of Argentina (SNMA), Japan Meteorological Agency
(JMA), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) and National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite
data were downloaded from the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and the Koninklijk Nederlands
Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI). The work has been carried
out in the GEMS and the MACC project, which are funded by
the European Commission under the Sixth and Seventh Research
Framework Programme, contract numbers SIP4-CT-2004-516099
and 218793.},
abstract = {The 2008 Antarctic ozone hole was one of the largest and
most long-lived in recent years. Predictions of the ozone
hole were made in near-real time (NRT) and hindcast mode
with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The
forecasts were carried out both with and without
assimilation of satellite observations from multiple
instruments to provide more realistic initial conditions.
Three different chemistry schemes were applied for the
description of stratospheric ozone chemistry: (i) a
linearization of the ozone chemistry, (ii) the stratospheric
chemical mechanism of the Model of Ozone and Related
Chemical Tracers, version 3, (MOZART-3) and (iii) the
relaxation to climatology as implemented in the Transport
Model, version 5, (TM5). The IFS uses the latter two schemes
by means of a two-way coupled system. Without assimilation,
the forecasts showed model-specific shortcomings in
predicting start time, extent and duration of the ozone
hole. The assimilation of satellite observations from the
Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring
Instrument (OMI), the Solar Backscattering Ultraviolet
radiometer (SBUV-2) and the SCanning Imaging Absorption
spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) led to
a significant improvement of the forecasts when compared
with total columns and vertical profiles from ozone sondes.
The combined assimilation of observations from multiple
instruments helped to overcome limitations of the
ultraviolet (UV) sensors at low solar elevation over
Antarctica. The assimilation of data from MLS was crucial to
obtain a good agreement with the observed ozone profiles
both in the polar stratosphere and troposphere. The ozone
analyses by the three model configurations were very similar
despite the different underlying chemistry schemes. Using
ozone analyses as initial conditions had a very beneficial
but variable effect on the predictability of the ozone hole
over 15 days. The initialized forecasts with the MOZART-3
chemistry produced the best predictions of the increasing
ozone hole whereas the linear scheme showed the best results
during the ozonehole closure.},
keywords = {J (WoSType)},
cin = {IEK-8},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
pnm = {Atmosphäre und Klima / MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric
Composition and Climate (218793)},
pid = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK491 / G:(EU-Grant)218793},
shelfmark = {Meteorology $\&$ Atmospheric Sciences},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000288368900008},
doi = {10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/14802},
}