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@ARTICLE{Flemming:14802,
      author       = {Flemming, J. and Inness, A. and Jones, L. and Eskes, H.J.
                      and Huijnen, V. and Schultz, M.G. and Stein, O. and
                      Cariolle, D. and Kinnison, D. and Brasseur, G.},
      title        = {{F}orecasts and assimilation experiments of the {A}ntarctic
                      ozone hole 2008},
      journal      = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
      volume       = {11},
      issn         = {1680-7316},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
      publisher    = {EGU},
      reportid     = {PreJuSER-14802},
      pages        = {1961-1977},
      year         = {2011},
      note         = {We thank Rossana Dragani and Martin Suttie for helpful
                      discussions on satellite observation errors. The ozone sonde
                      data used in this publication were obtained as part of the
                      Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change
                      (NDACC) and the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data
                      Centre (WOUDC) and are publicly available from
                      http://www.ndacc.org and http://www.woudc.org. The ozone
                      soundings were carried out by Alfred Wegener
                      Institute-Neumayer (AWI-NM), University of Wyoming, Finnish
                      Meteorological Institute (FMI), National Meteorological
                      Service of Argentina (SNMA), Japan Meteorological Agency
                      (JMA), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) and National
                      Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The satellite
                      data were downloaded from the National Aeronautics and Space
                      Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
                      Administration (NOAA) and the Koninklijk Nederlands
                      Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI). The work has been carried
                      out in the GEMS and the MACC project, which are funded by
                      the European Commission under the Sixth and Seventh Research
                      Framework Programme, contract numbers SIP4-CT-2004-516099
                      and 218793.},
      abstract     = {The 2008 Antarctic ozone hole was one of the largest and
                      most long-lived in recent years. Predictions of the ozone
                      hole were made in near-real time (NRT) and hindcast mode
                      with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European
                      Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The
                      forecasts were carried out both with and without
                      assimilation of satellite observations from multiple
                      instruments to provide more realistic initial conditions.
                      Three different chemistry schemes were applied for the
                      description of stratospheric ozone chemistry: (i) a
                      linearization of the ozone chemistry, (ii) the stratospheric
                      chemical mechanism of the Model of Ozone and Related
                      Chemical Tracers, version 3, (MOZART-3) and (iii) the
                      relaxation to climatology as implemented in the Transport
                      Model, version 5, (TM5). The IFS uses the latter two schemes
                      by means of a two-way coupled system. Without assimilation,
                      the forecasts showed model-specific shortcomings in
                      predicting start time, extent and duration of the ozone
                      hole. The assimilation of satellite observations from the
                      Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring
                      Instrument (OMI), the Solar Backscattering Ultraviolet
                      radiometer (SBUV-2) and the SCanning Imaging Absorption
                      spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) led to
                      a significant improvement of the forecasts when compared
                      with total columns and vertical profiles from ozone sondes.
                      The combined assimilation of observations from multiple
                      instruments helped to overcome limitations of the
                      ultraviolet (UV) sensors at low solar elevation over
                      Antarctica. The assimilation of data from MLS was crucial to
                      obtain a good agreement with the observed ozone profiles
                      both in the polar stratosphere and troposphere. The ozone
                      analyses by the three model configurations were very similar
                      despite the different underlying chemistry schemes. Using
                      ozone analyses as initial conditions had a very beneficial
                      but variable effect on the predictability of the ozone hole
                      over 15 days. The initialized forecasts with the MOZART-3
                      chemistry produced the best predictions of the increasing
                      ozone hole whereas the linear scheme showed the best results
                      during the ozonehole closure.},
      keywords     = {J (WoSType)},
      cin          = {IEK-8},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
      pnm          = {Atmosphäre und Klima / MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric
                      Composition and Climate (218793)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK491 / G:(EU-Grant)218793},
      shelfmark    = {Meteorology $\&$ Atmospheric Sciences},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000288368900008},
      doi          = {10.5194/acp-11-1961-2011},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/14802},
}