% IMPORTANT: The following is UTF-8 encoded.  This means that in the presence
% of non-ASCII characters, it will not work with BibTeX 0.99 or older.
% Instead, you should use an up-to-date BibTeX implementation like “bibtex8” or
% “biber”.

@ARTICLE{Stoll:15991,
      author       = {Stoll, S. and Hendricks-Franssen, H.J. and Butts, M. and
                      Kinzelbach, W.},
      title        = {{A}nalysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater
                      related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach
                      including different downscaling methods},
      journal      = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
      volume       = {15},
      issn         = {1027-5606},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
      publisher    = {EGU},
      reportid     = {PreJuSER-15991},
      pages        = {21 - 38},
      year         = {2011},
      note         = {We thank Henrik Madsen and Sara Lerer from DHI for their
                      advice. The study was supported by SNF Project No.
                      $200021_121862.$ The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was
                      funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract
                      number 505539) whose support is gratefully acknowledged.},
      abstract     = {Climate change related modifications in the spatio-temporal
                      distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration will
                      have an impact on groundwater resources. This study presents
                      a modelling approach exploiting the advantages of integrated
                      hydrological modelling and a broad climate model basis. We
                      applied the integrated MIKE SHE model on a perialpine, small
                      catchment in northern Switzerland near Zurich. To examine
                      the impact of climate change we forced the hydrological
                      model with data from eight GCM-RCM combinations showing
                      systematic biases which are corrected by three different
                      statistical downscaling methods, not only for precipitation
                      but also for the variables that govern potential
                      evapotranspiration. The downscaling methods are evaluated in
                      a split sample test and the sensitivity of the downscaling
                      procedure on the hydrological fluxes is analyzed. The RCMs
                      resulted in very different projections of potential
                      evapotranspiration and, especially, precipitation. All three
                      downscaling methods reduced the differences between the
                      predictions of the RCMs and all corrected predictions showed
                      no future groundwater stress which can be related to an
                      expected increase in precipitation during winter. It turned
                      out that especially the timing of the precipitation and thus
                      recharge is very important for the future development of the
                      groundwater levels. However, the simulation experiments
                      revealed the weaknesses of the downscaling methods which
                      directly influence the predicted hydrological fluxes, and
                      thus also the predicted groundwater levels. The downscaling
                      process is identified as an important source of uncertainty
                      in hydrological impact studies, which has to be accounted
                      for. Therefore it is strongly recommended to test different
                      downscaling methods by using verification data before
                      applying them to climate model data.},
      keywords     = {J (WoSType)},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {Terrestrische Umwelt},
      pid          = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK407},
      shelfmark    = {Geosciences, Multidisciplinary / Water Resources},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000286723600003},
      doi          = {10.5194/hess-15-21-2011},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/15991},
}