%0 Journal Article
%A Hogrefe, C.
%A Hao, W.
%A Zalewsky, E.E.
%A Ku, J.-Y.
%A Lynn, B.
%A Rosenzweig, C.
%A Schultz, M.G.
%A Rast, S.
%A Newchurch, M.J.
%A Wang, L.
%A Kinney, P.L.
%A Sistla, G.
%T An analysis of long-term regional-scale ozone simulations over the Northestern United States: variability and trends
%J Atmospheric chemistry and physics
%V 11
%@ 1680-7316
%C Katlenburg-Lindau
%I EGU
%M PreJuSER-16950
%P 567 - 582
%D 2011
%Z We gratefully acknowledge the following individuals and groups for providing some of the observational data analyzed in this study: (1) F. Schmidlin of NASA for the ozonesonde data at Wallops Island, VA, (2) the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Center for providing consolidated access to the ozonesonde data at Huntsville, AL, and Wallops Island, VA, and (3) J. W. Munger of Harvard University for the data at Harvard Forest. The work presented in this paper was performed by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). However, the views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of NYSDEC. Part of the work was supported by NOAA under award NAO40AR4310185185, but it has not been subjected to its required peer and policy review. Therefore, the statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA and no official endorsement should be inferred. M. G. Schultz and S. Rast acknowledge funding from the European Union under the RETRO project.
%X This study presents the results from two sets of 18-year air quality simulations over the Northeastern US performed with a regional photochemical modeling system. These two simulations utilize different sets of lateral boundary conditions, one corresponding to a time-invariant climatological vertical profile and the other derived from monthly mean concentrations extracted from archived ECHAM5-MOZART global simulations. The objective is to provide illustrative examples of how model performance in several key aspects - trends, intra- and interannual variability of ground-level ozone, and ozone/precursor relationships - can be evaluated against available observations, and to identify key inputs and processes that need to be considered when performing and improving such long-term simulations. To this end, several methods for comparing observed and simulated trends and variability of ground level ozone concentrations, ozone precursors and ozone/precursor relationships are introduced. The application of these methods to the simulation using time-invariant boundary conditions reveals that the observed downward trend in the upper percentiles of summertime ozone concentrations is captured by the model in both directionality and magnitude. However, for lower percentiles there is a marked disagreement between observed and simulated trends. In terms of variability, the simulations using the time-invariant boundary conditions underestimate observed inter-annual variability by 30%-50% depending on the percentiles of the distribution. The use of boundary conditions from the ECHAM5-MOZART simulations improves the representation of interannual variability but has an adverse impact on the simulated ozone trends. Moreover, biases in the global simulations have the potential to significantly affect ozone simulations throughout the modeling domain, both at the surface and aloft. The comparison of both simulations highlights the significant impact lateral boundary conditions can have on a regional air quality model's ability to simulate long-term ozone variability and trends, especially for the lower percentiles of the ozone distribution.
%K J (WoSType)
%F PUB:(DE-HGF)16
%9 Journal Article
%U <Go to ISI:>//WOS:000286722300012
%R 10.5194/acp-11-567-2011
%U https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/16950