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@ARTICLE{Huber:17040,
author = {Huber, E. and Hendricks Franssen, H.J. and Kaiser, H.P. and
Stauffer, F.},
title = {{T}he role of prior model calibration on predictions with
{E}nsemble {K}alman {F}ilter},
journal = {Ground water},
volume = {49},
issn = {0017-467X},
address = {Oxford [u.a.]},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
reportid = {PreJuSER-17040},
pages = {845 - 858},
year = {2011},
note = {Record converted from VDB: 12.11.2012},
abstract = {This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat
aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow
models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head
locations. These models are updated in real time with the
ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement
is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring
locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction
errors of the models calibrated in transient state are
smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the
calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow
systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model
calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a
noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity.
The model predictions can be improved further with the
assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors
with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction
of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean
absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between $31\%$
(assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and $72\%$
(assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest
prediction improvements are expected for models that were
calibrated with only a limited amount of historical
information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with
few monitoring locations as it seems that the error
reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount
of monitoring locations used. These results prove the
feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real
world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater
levels can be obtained.},
keywords = {Environmental Monitoring / Groundwater / Models,
Theoretical / J (WoSType)},
cin = {IBG-3},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
pnm = {Terrestrische Umwelt},
pid = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK407},
shelfmark = {Geosciences, Multidisciplinary / Water Resources},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
pubmed = {pmid:21210793},
UT = {WOS:000297070200011},
doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2010.00784.x},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/17040},
}