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@ARTICLE{Kreins:202474,
author = {Kreins, Peter and Henseler, Martin and Anter, Jano and
Herrmann, Frank and Wendland, Frank},
title = {{Q}uantification of {C}limate {C}hange {I}mpact on
{R}egional {A}gricultural {I}rrigation and {G}roundwater
{D}emand},
journal = {Water resources management},
volume = {29},
number = {10},
issn = {1573-1650},
address = {Dordrecht [u.a.]},
publisher = {Springer Science + Business Media B.V},
reportid = {FZJ-2015-04683},
pages = {3585 - 3600},
year = {2015},
abstract = {Climate change is expected to impact agricultural
production conditions and groundwater resources. The climate
change impacts are expected to be of particular importance
for the German region North Rhine-Westphalia. Due to a high
population density and intensive partial irrigation of
agricultural production, future resource conflicts for
groundwater are expected. An integrated model framework
consisting of climate, crop-soils and groundwater models
represents the regional heterogeneous climatic, geographic
and agronomic conditions. The integrated model framework
simulates the irrigation demand and groundwater recharge. An
ex-post comparison between the simulated reference period
(1961 to 1990) and statistical data prove a good model
validity. The climate change scenario for the future period
2051 to 2080 assumes decreasing precipitation and increasing
transpiration. The simulated total irrigation demand
increases by nearly 20 times compared to the reference
period (1961 to 1990) and increases regionally to more than
40 mm/ha. Decreasing groundwater recharge results in a
tenfold increased share of irrigation water from
groundwater. This share accounts regionally for more than 30
$\%.$ The results indicate important impacts for both
agricultural production and other groundwater users.},
cin = {IBG-3},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
pnm = {255 - Terrestrial Systems: From Observation to Prediction
(POF3-255)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-255},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000357345300008},
doi = {10.1007/s11269-015-1017-8},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/202474},
}