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000020318 084__ $$2WoS$$aMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
000020318 1001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aWild, O.$$b0
000020318 245__ $$aModelling future changes in surface ozone: a parameterized approach
000020318 260__ $$aKatlenburg-Lindau$$bEGU$$c2012
000020318 300__ $$a2037 - 2054
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000020318 440_0 $$09601$$aAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics$$v12$$x1680-7316$$y4
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000020318 520__ $$aThis study describes a simple parameterization to estimate regionally averaged changes in surface ozone due to past or future changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions based on results from 14 global chemistry transport models. The method successfully reproduces the results of full simulations with these models. For a given emission scenario it provides the ensemble mean surface ozone change, a regional source attribution for each change, and an estimate of the associated uncertainty as represented by the variation between models. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios as an example, we show how regional surface ozone is likely to respond to emission changes by 2050 and how changes in precursor emissions and atmospheric methane contribute to this. Surface ozone changes are substantially smaller than expected with the SRES A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios, with annual global mean reductions of as much as 2 ppb by 2050 vs. increases of 4-6 ppb under SRES, and this reflects the assumptions of more stringent precursor emission controls under the RCP scenarios. We find an average difference of around 5 ppb between the outlying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, about 75% of which can be attributed to differences in methane abundance. The study reveals the increasing importance of limiting atmospheric methane growth as emissions of other precursors are controlled, but highlights differences in modelled ozone responses to methane changes of as much as a factor of two, indicating that this remains a major uncertainty in current models.
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000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aFiore, A.M.$$b1
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aShindell, D.T.$$b2
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDoherty, R.M.$$b3
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aCollins, W.J.$$b4
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDentener, F.J.$$b5
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)6952$$aSchultz, M.G.$$b6$$uFZJ
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aGong, S.$$b7
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMacKenzie, I.A.$$b8
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aZeng, G.$$b9
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aHess, P.$$b10
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDuncan, B.N.$$b11
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBergmann, D.J.$$b12
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSzopa, S.$$b13
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aJonson, J.E.$$b14
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKeating, T.J.$$b15
000020318 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aZuber, A.$$b16
000020318 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2069847-1$$a10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012$$gVol. 12, p. 2037 - 2054$$p2037 - 2054$$q12<2037 - 2054$$tAtmospheric chemistry and physics$$v12$$x1680-7316$$y2012
000020318 8567_ $$uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012
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