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@ARTICLE{Wild:20318,
      author       = {Wild, O. and Fiore, A.M. and Shindell, D.T. and Doherty,
                      R.M. and Collins, W.J. and Dentener, F.J. and Schultz, M.G.
                      and Gong, S. and MacKenzie, I.A. and Zeng, G. and Hess, P.
                      and Duncan, B.N. and Bergmann, D.J. and Szopa, S. and
                      Jonson, J.E. and Keating, T.J. and Zuber, A.},
      title        = {{M}odelling future changes in surface ozone: a
                      parameterized approach},
      journal      = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
      volume       = {12},
      issn         = {1680-7316},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
      publisher    = {EGU},
      reportid     = {PreJuSER-20318},
      pages        = {2037 - 2054},
      year         = {2012},
      note         = {Record converted from VDB: 12.11.2012},
      abstract     = {This study describes a simple parameterization to estimate
                      regionally averaged changes in surface ozone due to past or
                      future changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions based on
                      results from 14 global chemistry transport models. The
                      method successfully reproduces the results of full
                      simulations with these models. For a given emission scenario
                      it provides the ensemble mean surface ozone change, a
                      regional source attribution for each change, and an estimate
                      of the associated uncertainty as represented by the
                      variation between models. Using the Representative
                      Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios as an
                      example, we show how regional surface ozone is likely to
                      respond to emission changes by 2050 and how changes in
                      precursor emissions and atmospheric methane contribute to
                      this. Surface ozone changes are substantially smaller than
                      expected with the SRES A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios, with annual
                      global mean reductions of as much as 2 ppb by 2050 vs.
                      increases of 4-6 ppb under SRES, and this reflects the
                      assumptions of more stringent precursor emission controls
                      under the RCP scenarios. We find an average difference of
                      around 5 ppb between the outlying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5
                      scenarios, about $75\%$ of which can be attributed to
                      differences in methane abundance. The study reveals the
                      increasing importance of limiting atmospheric methane growth
                      as emissions of other precursors are controlled, but
                      highlights differences in modelled ozone responses to
                      methane changes of as much as a factor of two, indicating
                      that this remains a major uncertainty in current models.},
      keywords     = {J (WoSType)},
      cin          = {IEK-8},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
      pnm          = {Atmosphäre und Klima},
      pid          = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK491},
      shelfmark    = {Meteorology $\&$ Atmospheric Sciences},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000300875900023},
      doi          = {10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/20318},
}