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@ARTICLE{Wild:20318,
author = {Wild, O. and Fiore, A.M. and Shindell, D.T. and Doherty,
R.M. and Collins, W.J. and Dentener, F.J. and Schultz, M.G.
and Gong, S. and MacKenzie, I.A. and Zeng, G. and Hess, P.
and Duncan, B.N. and Bergmann, D.J. and Szopa, S. and
Jonson, J.E. and Keating, T.J. and Zuber, A.},
title = {{M}odelling future changes in surface ozone: a
parameterized approach},
journal = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics},
volume = {12},
issn = {1680-7316},
address = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
publisher = {EGU},
reportid = {PreJuSER-20318},
pages = {2037 - 2054},
year = {2012},
note = {Record converted from VDB: 12.11.2012},
abstract = {This study describes a simple parameterization to estimate
regionally averaged changes in surface ozone due to past or
future changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions based on
results from 14 global chemistry transport models. The
method successfully reproduces the results of full
simulations with these models. For a given emission scenario
it provides the ensemble mean surface ozone change, a
regional source attribution for each change, and an estimate
of the associated uncertainty as represented by the
variation between models. Using the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios as an
example, we show how regional surface ozone is likely to
respond to emission changes by 2050 and how changes in
precursor emissions and atmospheric methane contribute to
this. Surface ozone changes are substantially smaller than
expected with the SRES A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios, with annual
global mean reductions of as much as 2 ppb by 2050 vs.
increases of 4-6 ppb under SRES, and this reflects the
assumptions of more stringent precursor emission controls
under the RCP scenarios. We find an average difference of
around 5 ppb between the outlying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5
scenarios, about $75\%$ of which can be attributed to
differences in methane abundance. The study reveals the
increasing importance of limiting atmospheric methane growth
as emissions of other precursors are controlled, but
highlights differences in modelled ozone responses to
methane changes of as much as a factor of two, indicating
that this remains a major uncertainty in current models.},
keywords = {J (WoSType)},
cin = {IEK-8},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
pnm = {Atmosphäre und Klima},
pid = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK491},
shelfmark = {Meteorology $\&$ Atmospheric Sciences},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000300875900023},
doi = {10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/20318},
}