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000276362 1001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSofiev, M.$$b0$$eCorresponding author
000276362 245__ $$aMACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
000276362 260__ $$aKatlenburg-Lindau$$bEGU$$c2015
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000276362 520__ $$aThis paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.
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000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBerger, U.$$b1
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPrank, M.$$b2
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aVira, J.$$b3
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aArteta, J.$$b4
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBelmonte, J.$$b5
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBergmann, K.-C.$$b6
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aChéroux, F.$$b7
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)129194$$aElbern, H.$$b8$$ufzj
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aFriese, E.$$b9
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aGalan, C.$$b10
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aGehrig, R.$$b11
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKhvorostyanov, D.$$b12
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKranenburg, R.$$b13
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKumar, U.$$b14
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMarécal, V.$$b15
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMeleux, F.$$b16
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMenut, L.$$b17
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPessi, A.-M.$$b18
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRobertson, L.$$b19
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRitenberga, O.$$b20
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRodinkova, V.$$b21
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSaarto, A.$$b22
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSegers, A.$$b23
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSeverova, E.$$b24
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSauliene, I.$$b25
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSiljamo, P.$$b26
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSteensen, B. M.$$b27
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aTeinemaa, E.$$b28
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aThibaudon, M.$$b29
000276362 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPeuch, V.-H.$$b30
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