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000003601 0247_ $$2DOI$$a10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.06.009
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000003601 084__ $$2WoS$$aWater Resources
000003601 1001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)129472$$aHuisman, J. A.$$b0$$uFZJ
000003601 245__ $$aAssessing the Impact of Land use Change on Hydrology by Ensemble Modelling (LUCHEM) III: scenario analysis
000003601 260__ $$aAmsterdam [u.a.]$$bElsevier Science$$c2009
000003601 300__ $$a159 - 170
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000003601 440_0 $$020263$$aAdvances in Water Resources$$v32$$x0309-1708$$y2
000003601 500__ $$aThis study has been supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft within the scope of the Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 299. A special thank goes to Bernd Weinmann for his efforts with the ProLand land use change scenarios.
000003601 520__ $$aAn ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
000003601 536__ $$0G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK407$$2G:(DE-HGF)$$aTerrestrische Umwelt$$cP24$$x0
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000003601 65320 $$2Author$$aModel intercomparison
000003601 65320 $$2Author$$aLand use change
000003601 65320 $$2Author$$aReliability ensemble averaging (REA)
000003601 65320 $$2Author$$aEnsemble modeling
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000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBreuer, L.$$b1
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBormann, H.$$b2
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBronstert, A.$$b3
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aCroke, B.$$b4
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aFrede, H.-G.$$b5
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aGräff, T.$$b6
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aHubrechts, L.$$b7
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aJakeman, A.$$b8
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKite, G.$$b9
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLanini, J.$$b10
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLeavesley, G.$$b11
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLettenmaier, D.$$b12
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLindström, G.$$b13
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSeibert, J.$$b14
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSivapalan, M.$$b15
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aViney, N.$$b16
000003601 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aWillems, P.$$b17
000003601 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2023320-6$$a10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.06.009$$gVol. 32, p. 159 - 170$$p159 - 170$$q32<159 - 170$$tAdvances in water resources$$v32$$x0309-1708$$y2009
000003601 8567_ $$uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.06.009
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