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@ARTICLE{Huisman:3601,
      author       = {Huisman, J. A. and Breuer, L. and Bormann, H. and
                      Bronstert, A. and Croke, B. and Frede, H.-G. and Gräff, T.
                      and Hubrechts, L. and Jakeman, A. and Kite, G. and Lanini,
                      J. and Leavesley, G. and Lettenmaier, D. and Lindström, G.
                      and Seibert, J. and Sivapalan, M. and Viney, N. and Willems,
                      P.},
      title        = {{A}ssessing the {I}mpact of {L}and use {C}hange on
                      {H}ydrology by {E}nsemble {M}odelling ({LUCHEM}) {III}:
                      scenario analysis},
      journal      = {Advances in water resources},
      volume       = {32},
      issn         = {0309-1708},
      address      = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Elsevier Science},
      reportid     = {PreJuSER-3601},
      pages        = {159 - 170},
      year         = {2009},
      note         = {This study has been supported by the Deutsche
                      Forschungsgemeinschaft within the scope of the Collaborative
                      Research Centre (SFB) 299. A special thank goes to Bernd
                      Weinmann for his efforts with the ProLand land use change
                      scenarios.},
      abstract     = {An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the
                      same set of land use change scenarios. There was general
                      agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual
                      discharge and $90\%$ discharge percentile predicted by the
                      ensemble members, although a considerable range in the
                      magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments
                      under consideration was obvious. Differences in the
                      magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different
                      mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land
                      use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed
                      with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The
                      deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean
                      resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario
                      prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging
                      (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure
                      uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded
                      that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our
                      confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. (C)
                      2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
      keywords     = {J (WoSType)},
      cin          = {ICG-4},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)VDB793},
      pnm          = {Terrestrische Umwelt},
      pid          = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK407},
      shelfmark    = {Water Resources},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000264512000004},
      doi          = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.06.009},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/3601},
}