MUT

 STE

In charge: Dr. P. Wiedemann, MUT, p.wiedemann@fz-juelich.de

Aims and Objectives

With regard to several main aereas of research this R&D project investigates approaches to societal precautions for the future. Attention is focused on urgent problems concerning the relationship between technology, environment and society as well as on possibilities of solving these problems.

The R&D project is expected to contribute to sustainably designing technology, industry and society and to constructively dealing with social conflicts. In this way, scientifically based decision aids are made available to politics and industry.

In selecting the problems to be solved, the R&D project is oriented both to social issues and to the fields of research dealt with at Jülich. The work concentrates on techno-economic analyses of energy systems, material flows and information infrastructures as well as on social-science analyses of decision-making processes.

Significant Results in 2003

Energy: Work in this field focused on the issues "Energy-Economic Strategies", "Energy Supply of Buildings" and "Fuel Cells". In this context policy scenarios and greenhouse gas reductions strategies were formulated and quantified to identify cost-effective measures for achieving the reduction goals. The results are used by policy decision makers (IMA CO₂) and for the formulation of the national climate report. The evaluation of the KfW-CO₂-mitigation-programmes, which provide economic incentives to modernize buildings, and of the monitoring activities of the chimney sweeps have identified positive effects on employment and on CO₂-reduction in both cases. For fuel cell applications a new method was developed to perform safety analysis for proof of appliance safety.

Material Flows in the Techno- and Geosphere: Work in this field concentrated on the issues of "Material Flow in the Geosphere" and "Material Flows in the Technosphere - Metallic Raw Materials". For LAWA a method was developed to identify the natural groundwater conditions. Within the framework of the BMBF research priority "River Basin Management" inventories of nutrient outputs from diffuse sources into the Rhine and Ems river basins were quantified. Additionally, scenarios for nutrient reduction were developed. Within the framework of resource-oriented analysis of metals an inventory for copper was developed and a CD presenting results of CRC 525 on Aluminium was published. Within the German network "Life Cycle Inventory Data" (HGF-IVF) the working group "Metallic Resources" was coordinated.

Information: Simulation demonstrated that the Internet´s resilience to disturbances depends in particular on the relationships between traffic, the capacity of backbones and exchange points and the topology ("star" or "net"-type-backbones).

"Research for Climate Protection" Office: The "Research for Climate Protection"-Office organized the Summer School "Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation - Identifying Options for Developing Countries". About 30 participants from developing countries and different professional areas (science, business, administration and NGOs) took part.

The evaluation of Programme 6 assessed work of STE as excellent. Nevertheless, it stressed the necessity for more thematic coordination with FZK. STE took the challenge into account by eliminating its working group "Material Flows in the Technosphere - Metallic Raw Materials" and by expanding its work with socio-economic/technical analysis of water systems.

Innovations Management: We focus on the development and implementation of methods for assessing the chances and risks of emerging technologies. First, the future - until 2025 - of grid-bound infrastructure and utilities including energy, water and telecommunications was investigated in cooperation with private companies, regulatory authorities and other societal organizations. Analyses based on scenario software were used to verify the consistency and plausibility of these future scenarios. Second, in cooperation with the Max Delbrück Centre Berlin the first German Delphi study about the future of stem cell research was conducted. This study investigates the chances and risks of embryonic and adult stem cells with respect to research, patients and enterprises in Germany and identifies the relevant driving factors. Furthermore, an approach of scenario-based conflict management was developed and established for the controversy between industry and environmental organizations about the assessement of the chances and risks of genetically modified food.

Dealing with uncertainty: In a triennial BfS project on the possibilities of comparative risk assessment, a multiattribute approach for comparing environmental health risks was developed, which permits a methodologically sound and transparent assessment with the participation of societal stakeholder groups. In cross-cultural experimental studies the story model, which has been developed by MUT and which describes the correlation between risk judgments and the affective characterization of risks, was enhanced. An experiment addressing the implementation of the precautionary principle revealed that precautionary measures can be contra-productive, since they might increase risk perception. Due to the importance of this finding, this study is being replicated at present.