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000054104 084__ $$2WoS$$aEngineering, Environmental
000054104 084__ $$2WoS$$aEnvironmental Sciences
000054104 1001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDentener, F.$$b0
000054104 245__ $$aThe Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation
000054104 260__ $$aColumbus, Ohio$$bAmerican Chemical Society$$c2006
000054104 300__ $$a3586 - 3594
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000054104 520__ $$aAir quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 +/- 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 +/- 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated +/- 1 sigma standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 +/- 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 +/- 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 +/- 15 and 155 +/- 37 mW m(-2) for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 +/- 15 mW m(-2) for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m(-2) yr(-1). These percentages increase by 2030 to 15.8% (CLE), 10.5% (MFR), and 25% (A2). This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation and the major benefits of going further. Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.
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000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aStevenson, D.$$b1
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aEllingsen, K.$$b2
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$avan Noije, T.$$b3
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)6952$$aSchultz, M.$$b4$$uFZJ
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aAmann, M.$$b5
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aAtherton, C.$$b6
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBell, N.$$b7
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBergmann, D.$$b8
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBey, I.$$b9
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBouwman, L.$$b10
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aButler, T.$$b11
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aCofala, J.$$b12
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aCollins, B.$$b13
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDrevet, J.$$b14
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDoherty, R.$$b15
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aEickhout, B.$$b16
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)VDB64819$$aEskes, H. J.$$b17$$uFZJ
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aFiore, A.$$b18
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aGauss, M.$$b19
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aHauglustaine, D.$$b20
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aHorowitz, L.$$b21
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aIsaksen, I. S. A.$$b22
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aJosse, B.$$b23
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLawrence, M.$$b24
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKrol, M.$$b25
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLamarque, J. F.$$b26
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMontanaro, V.$$b27
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMüller, J. F.$$b28
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPeuch, V. H.$$b29
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPitari, G.$$b30
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPyle, J.$$b31
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRast, S.$$b32
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRodriguez, J.$$b33
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSanderson, M.$$b34
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSavage, N. H.$$b35
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aShindell, D.$$b36
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aStrahan, S.$$b37
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSzopa, S.$$b38
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSudo, J.$$b39
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$avan Dingenen, R.$$b40
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aWild, O.$$b41
000054104 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aZeng, G.$$b42
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