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@ARTICLE{Dentener:54104,
author = {Dentener, F. and Stevenson, D. and Ellingsen, K. and van
Noije, T. and Schultz, M. and Amann, M. and Atherton, C. and
Bell, N. and Bergmann, D. and Bey, I. and Bouwman, L. and
Butler, T. and Cofala, J. and Collins, B. and Drevet, J. and
Doherty, R. and Eickhout, B. and Eskes, H. J. and Fiore, A.
and Gauss, M. and Hauglustaine, D. and Horowitz, L. and
Isaksen, I. S. A. and Josse, B. and Lawrence, M. and Krol,
M. and Lamarque, J. F. and Montanaro, V. and Müller, J. F.
and Peuch, V. H. and Pitari, G. and Pyle, J. and Rast, S.
and Rodriguez, J. and Sanderson, M. and Savage, N. H. and
Shindell, D. and Strahan, S. and Szopa, S. and Sudo, J. and
van Dingenen, R. and Wild, O. and Zeng, G.},
title = {{T}he {G}lobal {A}tmospheric {E}nvironment for the {N}ext
{G}eneration},
journal = {Environmental Science $\&$ Technology},
volume = {40},
issn = {0013-936X},
address = {Columbus, Ohio},
publisher = {American Chemical Society},
reportid = {PreJuSER-54104},
pages = {3586 - 3594},
year = {2006},
note = {Record converted from VDB: 12.11.2012},
abstract = {Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and
climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess
changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000
and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric
chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios.
The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current
air quality legislation around the world, while the second
(MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all
currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve
maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios
with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble
simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models
and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet
deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of
the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations
and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030,
global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by
1.5 +/- 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 +/- 2.2 ppb (A2), using the
ensemble mean model results and associated +/- 1 sigma
standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will
reduce ozone, by -2.3 +/- 1.1 ppb. Climate change is
expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 +/- 0.6 ppb, with
larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing
by ozone increases by 63 +/- 15 and 155 +/- 37 mW m(-2) for
CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 +/- 15 mW
m(-2) for MFR. We compute that at present $10.1\%$ of the
global natural terrestrial ecosystems are exposed to
nitrogen deposition above a critical load of 1 g N m(-2)
yr(-1). These percentages increase by 2030 to $15.8\%$
(CLE), $10.5\%$ (MFR), and $25\%$ (A2). This study shows the
importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality
legislation and the major benefits of going further.
Nonattainment of these air quality policy objectives, such
as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade
the global atmospheric environment.},
keywords = {J (WoSType)},
cin = {ICG-II},
ddc = {050},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)VDB48},
pnm = {Atmosphäre und Klima},
pid = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK406},
shelfmark = {Engineering, Environmental / Environmental Sciences},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000237921200029},
pubmed = {pmid:16786698},
doi = {10.1021/es0523845},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/54104},
}