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@ARTICLE{Stevenson:54137,
author = {Stevenson, D. S. and Dentener, F. J. and Schultz, M. G. and
Ellingsen, K. and van Noije, T. P. C. and Wild, O. and Zeng,
G. and Amann, M. and Atherton, C. S. and Bell, N. and
Bergmann, D. J. and Bey, I. and Butler, T. and Cofala, J.
and Collins, W. J. and Derwent, R. G. and Doherty, R. M. and
Drevet, J. and Eskes, H.J. and Fiore, A. M. and Gauss, M.
and Hauglustaine, D. A. and Horowitz, L. W. and Isaksen, I.
S. A. and Krol, M. C. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Lawrence, M.G.
and Montanaro, V. and Müller, J.-F. and Pitari, G. and
Prather, M. J. and Pyle, J.A. and Rast, S. and Rodriguez, J.
M. and Sanderson, M.G. and Savage, N. H. and Shindell, D. T.
and Strahan, S.E. and Sudo, K. and Szopa, S.},
title = {{M}ulti-model ensemble simulations of present-day and
near-future tropospheric ozone},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
volume = {111},
issn = {0148-0227},
address = {Washington, DC},
publisher = {Union},
reportid = {PreJuSER-54137},
pages = {D08301},
year = {2006},
note = {Record converted from VDB: 12.11.2012},
abstract = {Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and
radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art
atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and
synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air
quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030
emissions scenarios, broadly representing "optimistic,''
"likely,'' and "pessimistic'' options, are compared to a
base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically
represents the current global distribution of tropospheric
ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence
of climate change over the same time period by forcing the
central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around
0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to
identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the
robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in
tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3
scenarios range from a $5\%$ decrease, through a $6\%$
increase, to a $15\%$ increase. The intermodel uncertainty
(+/-1 standard deviation) associated with these values is
about $+/-25\%.$ Model outliers have no significant
influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and
methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative
forcings of -50, 180, and 300 mW m(-2), compared to a CO2
forcing over the same time period of 800-1100 mW m(-2).
These values indicate the importance of air pollution
emissions in short-to medium-term climate forcing and the
potential for stringent/lax control measures to
improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity
of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but
modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by +/-5 ppbv via a
variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those
involving water vapor and stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
This level of climate change also reduces the methane
lifetime by around $4\%.$ The ensemble mean year 2000
tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production,
chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratospheric input
fluxes of 5100, 4650, 1000, and 550 Tg(O-3) yr(-1),
respectively. These values are significantly different to
the mean budget documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). The
mean ozone burden (340 Tg(O-3)) is $10\%$ larger than the
IPCC TAR estimate, while the mean ozone lifetime (22 days)
is $10\%$ shorter. Results from individual models show a
correlation between ozone burden and lifetime, and each
model's ozone burden and lifetime respond in similar ways
across the emissions scenarios. The response to climate
change is much less consistent. Models show more variability
in the tropics compared to midlatitudes. Some of the most
uncertain areas of the models include treatments of deep
tropical convection, including lightning NOx production;
isoprene emissions from vegetation and isoprene's
degradation chemistry; stratosphere-troposphere exchange;
biomass burning; and water vapor concentrations.},
keywords = {J (WoSType)},
cin = {ICG-II},
ddc = {550},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)VDB48},
pnm = {Atmosphäre und Klima},
pid = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK406},
shelfmark = {Meteorology $\&$ Atmospheric Sciences},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
UT = {WOS:000237412100003},
doi = {10.1029/2005JD006338},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/54137},
}