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@ARTICLE{Stevenson:54137,
      author       = {Stevenson, D. S. and Dentener, F. J. and Schultz, M. G. and
                      Ellingsen, K. and van Noije, T. P. C. and Wild, O. and Zeng,
                      G. and Amann, M. and Atherton, C. S. and Bell, N. and
                      Bergmann, D. J. and Bey, I. and Butler, T. and Cofala, J.
                      and Collins, W. J. and Derwent, R. G. and Doherty, R. M. and
                      Drevet, J. and Eskes, H.J. and Fiore, A. M. and Gauss, M.
                      and Hauglustaine, D. A. and Horowitz, L. W. and Isaksen, I.
                      S. A. and Krol, M. C. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Lawrence, M.G.
                      and Montanaro, V. and Müller, J.-F. and Pitari, G. and
                      Prather, M. J. and Pyle, J.A. and Rast, S. and Rodriguez, J.
                      M. and Sanderson, M.G. and Savage, N. H. and Shindell, D. T.
                      and Strahan, S.E. and Sudo, K. and Szopa, S.},
      title        = {{M}ulti-model ensemble simulations of present-day and
                      near-future tropospheric ozone},
      journal      = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
      volume       = {111},
      issn         = {0148-0227},
      address      = {Washington, DC},
      publisher    = {Union},
      reportid     = {PreJuSER-54137},
      pages        = {D08301},
      year         = {2006},
      note         = {Record converted from VDB: 12.11.2012},
      abstract     = {Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and
                      radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art
                      atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and
                      synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air
                      quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030
                      emissions scenarios, broadly representing "optimistic,''
                      "likely,'' and "pessimistic'' options, are compared to a
                      base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically
                      represents the current global distribution of tropospheric
                      ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence
                      of climate change over the same time period by forcing the
                      central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around
                      0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to
                      identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the
                      robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in
                      tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3
                      scenarios range from a $5\%$ decrease, through a $6\%$
                      increase, to a $15\%$ increase. The intermodel uncertainty
                      (+/-1 standard deviation) associated with these values is
                      about $+/-25\%.$ Model outliers have no significant
                      influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and
                      methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative
                      forcings of -50, 180, and 300 mW m(-2), compared to a CO2
                      forcing over the same time period of 800-1100 mW m(-2).
                      These values indicate the importance of air pollution
                      emissions in short-to medium-term climate forcing and the
                      potential for stringent/lax control measures to
                      improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity
                      of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but
                      modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by +/-5 ppbv via a
                      variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those
                      involving water vapor and stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
                      This level of climate change also reduces the methane
                      lifetime by around $4\%.$ The ensemble mean year 2000
                      tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production,
                      chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratospheric input
                      fluxes of 5100, 4650, 1000, and 550 Tg(O-3) yr(-1),
                      respectively. These values are significantly different to
                      the mean budget documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on
                      Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). The
                      mean ozone burden (340 Tg(O-3)) is $10\%$ larger than the
                      IPCC TAR estimate, while the mean ozone lifetime (22 days)
                      is $10\%$ shorter. Results from individual models show a
                      correlation between ozone burden and lifetime, and each
                      model's ozone burden and lifetime respond in similar ways
                      across the emissions scenarios. The response to climate
                      change is much less consistent. Models show more variability
                      in the tropics compared to midlatitudes. Some of the most
                      uncertain areas of the models include treatments of deep
                      tropical convection, including lightning NOx production;
                      isoprene emissions from vegetation and isoprene's
                      degradation chemistry; stratosphere-troposphere exchange;
                      biomass burning; and water vapor concentrations.},
      keywords     = {J (WoSType)},
      cin          = {ICG-II},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)VDB48},
      pnm          = {Atmosphäre und Klima},
      pid          = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK406},
      shelfmark    = {Meteorology $\&$ Atmospheric Sciences},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000237412100003},
      doi          = {10.1029/2005JD006338},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/54137},
}