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000057796 1001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aShindell, D. T.$$b0
000057796 245__ $$aMultimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes
000057796 260__ $$aWashington, DC$$bUnion$$c2006
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000057796 440_0 $$06393$$aJournal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres$$v111$$x0148-0227
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000057796 520__ $$aWe analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 +/- 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 +/- 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 +/- 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 +/- 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20-30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.
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000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aFaluvegi, G.$$b1
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aStevenson, D. S.$$b2
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aKrol, M. C.$$b3
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aEmmons, L. K.$$b4
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLamarque, J.-F.$$b5
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPétron, G.$$b6
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDentener, F. J.$$b7
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aEllingsen, K.$$b8
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)6952$$aSchultz, M. G.$$b9$$uFZJ
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aWild, O.$$b10
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aAmann, M.$$b11
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aAtherton, C. S.$$b12
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBergmann, D. J.$$b13
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aBey, I.$$b14
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aButler, T.$$b15
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aCofala, J.$$b16
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aCollins, W. J.$$b17
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDerwent, R. G.$$b18
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDoherty, R. M.$$b19
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aDrevet, J.$$b20
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aEskes, H.J.$$b21
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aFiore, A. M.$$b22
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aGauss, M.$$b23
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aHauglustaine, D. A.$$b24
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aHorowitz, L. W.$$b25
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aIsaksen, I. S. A.$$b26
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aLawrence, M. G.$$b27
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMontanaro, V.$$b28
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aMüller, J.-F.$$b29
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPitari, G.$$b30
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPrather, M. J.$$b31
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aPyle, J. A.$$b32
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRast, S.$$b33
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRodriguez, J. M.$$b34
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSanderson, M. G.$$b35
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSavage, N. H.$$b36
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aStrahan, S.E.$$b37
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSudo, K.$$b38
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aSzopa, S.$$b39
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aUnger, N.$$b40
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$avan Noije, T. P. C.$$b41
000057796 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aZeng, G.$$b42
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000057796 8567_ $$uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007100
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