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@ARTICLE{Shindell:57796,
      author       = {Shindell, D. T. and Faluvegi, G. and Stevenson, D. S. and
                      Krol, M. C. and Emmons, L. K. and Lamarque, J.-F. and
                      Pétron, G. and Dentener, F. J. and Ellingsen, K. and
                      Schultz, M. G. and Wild, O. and Amann, M. and Atherton, C.
                      S. and Bergmann, D. J. and Bey, I. and Butler, T. and
                      Cofala, J. and Collins, W. J. and Derwent, R. G. and
                      Doherty, R. M. and Drevet, J. and Eskes, H.J. and Fiore, A.
                      M. and Gauss, M. and Hauglustaine, D. A. and Horowitz, L. W.
                      and Isaksen, I. S. A. and Lawrence, M. G. and Montanaro, V.
                      and Müller, J.-F. and Pitari, G. and Prather, M. J. and
                      Pyle, J. A. and Rast, S. and Rodriguez, J. M. and Sanderson,
                      M. G. and Savage, N. H. and Strahan, S.E. and Sudo, K. and
                      Szopa, S. and Unger, N. and van Noije, T. P. C. and Zeng,
                      G.},
      title        = {{M}ultimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: {C}omparison
                      with observations and projected near-future changes},
      journal      = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
      volume       = {111},
      issn         = {0148-0227},
      address      = {Washington, DC},
      publisher    = {Union},
      reportid     = {PreJuSER-57796},
      pages        = {D19306},
      year         = {2006},
      note         = {Record converted from VDB: 12.11.2012},
      abstract     = {We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO)
                      simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry
                      models run to study future air quality and climate change.
                      In comparison with near-global satellite observations from
                      the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the
                      models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH)
                      extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well
                      elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions,
                      probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal
                      biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are
                      greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA
                      and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely
                      resulting primarily from intermodel differences in
                      representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic
                      compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH
                      and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean
                      projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are
                      quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO
                      increases by 12.6 +/- 3.5 ppbv $(16\%)$ for the
                      high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 +/- 1.8 ppbv $(2\%)$
                      for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 +/-
                      2.3 ppbv $(11\%)$ for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario.
                      Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by
                      1.4 +/- 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In
                      response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in
                      the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The
                      regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across
                      models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv
                      over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to
                      CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the
                      largest changes over central Africa (20-30 ppbv), southern
                      Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv).
                      The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to
                      profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's
                      populated areas.},
      keywords     = {J (WoSType)},
      cin          = {ICG-2},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)VDB791},
      pnm          = {Atmosphäre und Klima},
      pid          = {G:(DE-Juel1)FUEK406},
      shelfmark    = {Meteorology $\&$ Atmospheric Sciences},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000241297400004},
      doi          = {10.1029/2006JD007100},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/57796},
}