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@ARTICLE{VanLooy:825413,
      author       = {Van Looy, Kris and Piffady, Jérémy},
      title        = {{M}etapopulation modelling of riparian tree species
                      persistence in river networks under climate change},
      journal      = {Journal of environmental management},
      volume       = {202},
      number       = {Part 2},
      issn         = {0301-4797},
      address      = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Elsevier},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2016-07876},
      pages        = {437-446},
      year         = {2017},
      abstract     = {Floodplain landscapes are highly fragmented by river
                      regulation resulting in habitat degradation and flood regime
                      perturbation, posing risks to population persistence.
                      Climate change is expected to pose supplementary risks in
                      this context of fragmented landscapes, and especially for
                      river systems adaptation management programs are developed.
                      The association of habitat quality and quantity with the
                      landscape dynamics and resilience to human-induced
                      disturbances is still poorly understood in the context of
                      species survival and colonization processes, but essential
                      to prioritize conservation and restoration actions. We
                      present a modelling approach that elucidates network
                      connectivity and landscape dynamics in spatial and temporal
                      context to identify vital corridors and conservation
                      priorities in the Loire river and its tributaries.
                      Alteration of flooding and flow regimes is believed to be
                      critical to population dynamics in river ecosystems. Still,
                      little is known of critical levels of alteration both
                      spatially and temporally. We applied metapopulation
                      modelling approaches for a dispersal-limited tree species,
                      white elm; and a recruitment-limited tree species, black
                      poplar. In different model steps the connectivity and
                      natural dynamics of the river landscape are confronted with
                      physical alterations (dams/dykes) to species survival and
                      then future scenarios for climatic changes and potential
                      adaptation measures are entered in the model and translated
                      in population persistence over the river basin. For the two
                      tree species we highlighted crucial network zones in
                      relation to habitat quality and connectivity. Where the
                      human impact model already shows currently restricted
                      metapopulation development, climate change is projected to
                      aggravate this persistence perspective substantially. For
                      both species a significant drawback to the basin population
                      is observed, with 1/3 for elm and ¼ for poplar after 25
                      years already. But proposed adaptation measures prove
                      effective to even bring metapopulation strength and
                      persistence up to a level above the current level.},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      ddc          = {333.7},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {255 - Terrestrial Systems: From Observation to Prediction
                      (POF3-255)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-255},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000409294000010},
      doi          = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.11.019},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/825413},
}