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@ARTICLE{Sofiev:828163,
      author       = {Sofiev, Mikhail and Ritenberga, Olga and Albertini, Roberto
                      and Arteta, Joaquim and Belmonte, Jordina and Bonini, Maira
                      and Celenk, Sevcan and Damialis, Athanasios and Douros, John
                      and Elbern, Hendrik and Friese, Elmar and Galan, Carmen and
                      Gilles, Oliver and Hrga, Ivana and Kouznetsov, Rostislav and
                      Krajsek, Kai and Parmentier, Jonathan and Plu, Matthieu and
                      Prank, Marje and Robertson, Lennart and Steensen, Birthe
                      Marie and Thibaudon, Michel and Segers, Arjo and
                      Stepanovich, Barbara and Valdebenito, Alvaro M. and Vira,
                      Julius and Vokou, Despoina},
      title        = {{M}ulti-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen
                      distribution in {E}urope in 2014},
      journal      = {Atmospheric chemistry and physics / Discussions},
      volume       = {},
      issn         = {1680-7375},
      address      = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
      publisher    = {EGU},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2017-02131},
      pages        = {1 - 32},
      year         = {2017},
      abstract     = {A 6-models strong European ensemble of Copernicus
                      Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) was run through the
                      season of 2014 computing the olive pollen dispersion in
                      Europe. The simulations have been compared with observations
                      in 6 countries, members of the European Aeroallergen
                      Network. Analysis was performed for individual models, the
                      ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimized
                      combination of the ensemble members obtained via fusion of
                      the model predictions with observations. The models,
                      generally reproducing the olive season of 2014, showed
                      noticeable deviations from both observations and each other.
                      In particular, the season start was reported too early, by 8
                      days but for some models the error mounted to almost two
                      weeks. For the season end, the disagreement between the
                      models and the observations varied from a nearly perfect
                      match up to two weeks too late. A series of sensitivity
                      studies performed to understand the origin of the
                      disagreements revealed crucial role of ambient temperature,
                      especially systematic biases in its representation by
                      meteorological models. A simple correction to the heat sum
                      threshold eliminated the season shift but its validity in
                      other years remains to be checked. The short-term features
                      of the concentration time series were reproduced better
                      suggesting that the precipitation events and cold/warm
                      spells, as well as the large-scale transport were
                      represented rather well. Ensemble averaging led to more
                      robust results. The best skill scores were obtained with
                      data fusion, which used the previous-days observations to
                      identify the optimal weighting coefficients of the
                      individual model forecasts. Such combinations were tested
                      for the forecasting period up to 4 days and shown to remain
                      nearly optimal throughout the whole period.},
      cin          = {IEK-8},
      ddc          = {550},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-8-20101013},
      pnm          = {243 - Tropospheric trace substances and their
                      transformation processes (POF3-243)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-243},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      doi          = {10.5194/acp-2016-1189},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/828163},
}