000829645 001__ 829645
000829645 005__ 20210129230327.0
000829645 0247_ $$2Handle$$a2128/15326
000829645 037__ $$aFZJ-2017-03314
000829645 1001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)145221$$aHeinrichs, Heidi$$b0
000829645 1112_ $$aEnergy for Society: 1st International Conference on Energy Research and Social Science$$cSitges$$d2017-04-02 - 2017-04-05$$wSpain
000829645 245__ $$aCreating transparent, plausible, relevant, and consistent energy scenarios
000829645 260__ $$c2017
000829645 3367_ $$033$$2EndNote$$aConference Paper
000829645 3367_ $$2DataCite$$aOther
000829645 3367_ $$2BibTeX$$aINPROCEEDINGS
000829645 3367_ $$2DRIVER$$aconferenceObject
000829645 3367_ $$2ORCID$$aLECTURE_SPEECH
000829645 3367_ $$0PUB:(DE-HGF)6$$2PUB:(DE-HGF)$$aConference Presentation$$bconf$$mconf$$s1506089338_7845$$xAfter Call
000829645 520__ $$aThe transformation towards a sustainable energy system is characterized by highly complex and uncertain processes. Energy scenario development is a tool to generate strategies to manage this process. However, the traditional practices of energy scenario development are primarily focusing on modelling processes that contain a mathematical description of essential technical and economic system properties such as efficiency of technologies, installed capacities, CO2 emission factors as well as investments and operating costs. In most quantitative energy scenarios social impacts such as changing institutions, practices, and value systems in which technological and economical energy systems are embedded, are lacking. That is why those energy scenarios are criticised as being not transparent about intrinsic assumptions and uncertainties which result in predispositions. In addition, criteria such as plausibility, consistency, consistent, and relevance are important determinants to ensure the development of energy scenarios that provide valid insights on future energy challenges and policy implications. This paper will present a multimethod design to generate qualitative scenarios, which is characterised by deliberative and analytical phases. In the first phase deliberative methods; meaning the inclusion of external experts; are applied to develop draft storylines from scratch integrating multiple perspectives and sources of expertise. In the next phase the Future Wheel-method was used to identify direct and indirect consequences of focused trends derived from the draft storylines. This was followed by a Cross-Impact Balance analysis in the interest of ensuring consistency. In a fourth phase the draft qualitative energy scenarios are deliberatively tested. Our findings reflect on how the applied multimethod design has contributed to create transparency, plausibility, consistency, and relevance.
000829645 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153$$a153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153)$$cPOF3-153$$fPOF III$$x0
000829645 536__ $$0G:(DE-Juel1)HITEC-20170406$$aHITEC - Helmholtz Interdisciplinary Doctoral Training in Energy and Climate Research (HITEC) (HITEC-20170406)$$cHITEC-20170406$$x1
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)130491$$aVoegele, Stefan$$b1
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)166140$$aGotzens, Fabian$$b2
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)161547$$aGillessen, Bastian$$b3
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)130485$$aSchumann, Diana$$b4
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)168187$$aShamon, Hawal$$b5
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)169526$$aKunz, Paul$$b6
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)8462$$aBiss, Klaus$$b7
000829645 7001_ $$0P:(DE-Juel1)162255$$aErnst, Anna$$b8$$eCorresponding author
000829645 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645/files/Ernst%20et%20al%20Multimethod%20design%20for%20generating%20Energy%20Scenarios%20final%2016.pdf$$yOpenAccess
000829645 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645/files/Ernst%20et%20al%20Multimethod%20design%20for%20generating%20Energy%20Scenarios%20final%2016.gif?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yOpenAccess
000829645 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645/files/Ernst%20et%20al%20Multimethod%20design%20for%20generating%20Energy%20Scenarios%20final%2016.jpg?subformat=icon-1440$$xicon-1440$$yOpenAccess
000829645 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645/files/Ernst%20et%20al%20Multimethod%20design%20for%20generating%20Energy%20Scenarios%20final%2016.jpg?subformat=icon-180$$xicon-180$$yOpenAccess
000829645 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645/files/Ernst%20et%20al%20Multimethod%20design%20for%20generating%20Energy%20Scenarios%20final%2016.jpg?subformat=icon-640$$xicon-640$$yOpenAccess
000829645 8564_ $$uhttps://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645/files/Ernst%20et%20al%20Multimethod%20design%20for%20generating%20Energy%20Scenarios%20final%2016.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa$$yOpenAccess
000829645 909CO $$ooai:juser.fz-juelich.de:829645$$pdriver$$pVDB$$popen_access$$popenaire
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)145221$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b0$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)130491$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b1$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)166140$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b2$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)161547$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b3$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)130485$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b4$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)168187$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b5$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)169526$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b6$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)8462$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b7$$kFZJ
000829645 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588b)5008462-8$$6P:(DE-Juel1)162255$$aForschungszentrum Jülich$$b8$$kFZJ
000829645 9131_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF3-150$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF3-100$$3G:(DE-HGF)POF3$$4G:(DE-HGF)POF$$aDE-HGF$$bEnergie$$lTechnologie, Innovation und Gesellschaft$$vAssessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of Energy Efficiency and Energy Security$$x0
000829645 9141_ $$y2017
000829645 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0510$$2StatID$$aOpenAccess
000829645 920__ $$lyes
000829645 9201_ $$0I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013$$kIEK-STE$$lSystemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung$$x0
000829645 980__ $$aconf
000829645 980__ $$aVDB
000829645 980__ $$aUNRESTRICTED
000829645 980__ $$aI:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013
000829645 9801_ $$aFullTexts