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@INPROCEEDINGS{Heinrichs:829645,
author = {Heinrichs, Heidi and Voegele, Stefan and Gotzens, Fabian
and Gillessen, Bastian and Schumann, Diana and Shamon, Hawal
and Kunz, Paul and Biss, Klaus and Ernst, Anna},
title = {{C}reating transparent, plausible, relevant, and consistent
energy scenarios},
reportid = {FZJ-2017-03314},
year = {2017},
abstract = {The transformation towards a sustainable energy system is
characterized by highly complex and uncertain processes.
Energy scenario development is a tool to generate strategies
to manage this process. However, the traditional practices
of energy scenario development are primarily focusing on
modelling processes that contain a mathematical description
of essential technical and economic system properties such
as efficiency of technologies, installed capacities, CO2
emission factors as well as investments and operating costs.
In most quantitative energy scenarios social impacts such as
changing institutions, practices, and value systems in which
technological and economical energy systems are embedded,
are lacking. That is why those energy scenarios are
criticised as being not transparent about intrinsic
assumptions and uncertainties which result in
predispositions. In addition, criteria such as plausibility,
consistency, consistent, and relevance are important
determinants to ensure the development of energy scenarios
that provide valid insights on future energy challenges and
policy implications. This paper will present a multimethod
design to generate qualitative scenarios, which is
characterised by deliberative and analytical phases. In the
first phase deliberative methods; meaning the inclusion of
external experts; are applied to develop draft storylines
from scratch integrating multiple perspectives and sources
of expertise. In the next phase the Future Wheel-method was
used to identify direct and indirect consequences of focused
trends derived from the draft storylines. This was followed
by a Cross-Impact Balance analysis in the interest of
ensuring consistency. In a fourth phase the draft
qualitative energy scenarios are deliberatively tested. Our
findings reflect on how the applied multimethod design has
contributed to create transparency, plausibility,
consistency, and relevance.},
month = {Apr},
date = {2017-04-02},
organization = {Energy for Society: 1st International
Conference on Energy Research and
Social Science, Sitges (Spain), 2 Apr
2017 - 5 Apr 2017},
subtyp = {After Call},
cin = {IEK-STE},
cid = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
pnm = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) / HITEC -
Helmholtz Interdisciplinary Doctoral Training in Energy and
Climate Research (HITEC) (HITEC-20170406)},
pid = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153 / G:(DE-Juel1)HITEC-20170406},
typ = {PUB:(DE-HGF)6},
url = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645},
}