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@INPROCEEDINGS{Heinrichs:829645,
      author       = {Heinrichs, Heidi and Voegele, Stefan and Gotzens, Fabian
                      and Gillessen, Bastian and Schumann, Diana and Shamon, Hawal
                      and Kunz, Paul and Biss, Klaus and Ernst, Anna},
      title        = {{C}reating transparent, plausible, relevant, and consistent
                      energy scenarios},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2017-03314},
      year         = {2017},
      abstract     = {The transformation towards a sustainable energy system is
                      characterized by highly complex and uncertain processes.
                      Energy scenario development is a tool to generate strategies
                      to manage this process. However, the traditional practices
                      of energy scenario development are primarily focusing on
                      modelling processes that contain a mathematical description
                      of essential technical and economic system properties such
                      as efficiency of technologies, installed capacities, CO2
                      emission factors as well as investments and operating costs.
                      In most quantitative energy scenarios social impacts such as
                      changing institutions, practices, and value systems in which
                      technological and economical energy systems are embedded,
                      are lacking. That is why those energy scenarios are
                      criticised as being not transparent about intrinsic
                      assumptions and uncertainties which result in
                      predispositions. In addition, criteria such as plausibility,
                      consistency, consistent, and relevance are important
                      determinants to ensure the development of energy scenarios
                      that provide valid insights on future energy challenges and
                      policy implications. This paper will present a multimethod
                      design to generate qualitative scenarios, which is
                      characterised by deliberative and analytical phases. In the
                      first phase deliberative methods; meaning the inclusion of
                      external experts; are applied to develop draft storylines
                      from scratch integrating multiple perspectives and sources
                      of expertise. In the next phase the Future Wheel-method was
                      used to identify direct and indirect consequences of focused
                      trends derived from the draft storylines. This was followed
                      by a Cross-Impact Balance analysis in the interest of
                      ensuring consistency. In a fourth phase the draft
                      qualitative energy scenarios are deliberatively tested. Our
                      findings reflect on how the applied multimethod design has
                      contributed to create transparency, plausibility,
                      consistency, and relevance.},
      month         = {Apr},
      date          = {2017-04-02},
      organization  = {Energy for Society: 1st International
                       Conference on Energy Research and
                       Social Science, Sitges (Spain), 2 Apr
                       2017 - 5 Apr 2017},
      subtyp        = {After Call},
      cin          = {IEK-STE},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
      pnm          = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
                      Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) / HITEC -
                      Helmholtz Interdisciplinary Doctoral Training in Energy and
                      Climate Research (HITEC) (HITEC-20170406)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153 / G:(DE-Juel1)HITEC-20170406},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)6},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/829645},
}