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@ARTICLE{Wohland:842406,
      author       = {Wohland, Jan and Reyers, Mark and Märker, Carolin and
                      Witthaut, Dirk},
      title        = {{N}atural wind variability triggered drop in {G}erman
                      redispatch volume and costs from 2015 to 2016},
      journal      = {PLoS one},
      volume       = {13},
      number       = {1},
      issn         = {1932-6203},
      address      = {Lawrence, Kan.},
      publisher    = {PLoS},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2018-00642},
      pages        = {e0190707 -},
      year         = {2018},
      abstract     = {Avoiding dangerous climate change necessitates the
                      decarbonization of electricity systems within the next few
                      decades. In Germany, this decarbonization is based on an
                      increased exploitation of variable renewable electricity
                      sources such as wind and solar power. While system security
                      has remained constantly high, the integration of renewables
                      causes additional costs. In 2015, the costs of grid
                      management saw an all time high of about € 1 billion.
                      Despite the addition of renewable capacity, these costs
                      dropped substantially in 2016. We thus investigate the
                      effect of natural climate variability on grid management
                      costs in this study. We show that the decline is triggered
                      by natural wind variability focusing on redispatch as a main
                      cost driver. In particular, we find that 2016 was a weak
                      year in terms of wind generation averages and the occurrence
                      of westerly circulation weather types. Moreover, we show
                      that a simple model based on the wind generation time series
                      is skillful in detecting redispatch events on timescales of
                      weeks and beyond. As a consequence, alterations in annual
                      redispatch costs in the order of hundreds of millions of
                      euros need to be understood and communicated as a normal
                      feature of the current system due to natural wind
                      variability.},
      cin          = {IEK-STE},
      ddc          = {500},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-STE-20101013},
      pnm          = {153 - Assessment of Energy Systems – Addressing Issues of
                      Energy Efficiency and Energy Security (POF3-153) /
                      VH-NG-1025 - Helmholtz Young Investigators Group
                      "Efficiency, Emergence and Economics of future supply
                      networks" $(VH-NG-1025_20112014)$},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-153 / $G:(HGF)VH-NG-1025_20112014$},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      pubmed       = {pmid:29329349},
      UT           = {WOS:000419954100020},
      doi          = {10.1371/journal.pone.0190707},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/842406},
}