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@ARTICLE{Lux:844551,
      author       = {Lux, H. and Kemp, R. and Wenninger, R. and Biel, W. and
                      Federici, G. and Morris, W. and Zohm, H.},
      title        = {{U}ncertainties in power plant design point evaluations},
      journal      = {Fusion engineering and design},
      volume       = {123},
      issn         = {0920-3796},
      address      = {New York, NY [u.a.]},
      publisher    = {Elsevier},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2018-01958},
      pages        = {63 - 66},
      year         = {2017},
      abstract     = {When designing a new large experimental device,
                      extrapolation from current knowledge and scaling laws into
                      unexplored design space is unavoidable, and predicting the
                      behaviour of a new device is therefore subject to
                      significant uncertainties. This makes it difficult to
                      determine an optimal design. For conceptual fusion power
                      plants, a further concern is whether the expected
                      performance will yield any net electricity and for pulsed
                      power plants a reasonable pulse length.In this work, we
                      focus on evaluating the effects of selected uncertainties
                      regarding the general plasma physics performance in the
                      current European pulsed DEMO design (nominally 500 MW net
                      electrical power, 2 h pulse length). This is meant as a
                      first step towards uncertainty quantification for DEMO. We
                      use a Monte-Carlo method in combination with the systems
                      modelling code PROCESS to map out the probable machine
                      performance. The results show that assuming only these
                      specific uncertainties it is a reasonable assumption that
                      the current design is capable of providing 400 MW of net
                      electricity while maintaining a pulse length of 1 h or
                      more.},
      cin          = {IEK-4},
      ddc          = {620},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IEK-4-20101013},
      pnm          = {174 - Plasma-Wall-Interaction (POF3-174)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-174},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000418992000011},
      doi          = {10.1016/j.fusengdes.2017.01.029},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/844551},
}