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@INPROCEEDINGS{Berchtold:844684,
      author       = {Berchtold, Florian and Knaust, Christian and Arnold, Lukas
                      and Thöns, Sebastian and Rogge, Andreas},
      title        = {{R}isk {A}nalysis for {R}oad {T}unnels – {A} {M}etamodel
                      to {E}fficiently {I}ntegrate {C}omplex {F}ire {S}cenarios},
      address      = {Stockholm},
      publisher    = {RISE Research Institutes of Sweden AB},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2018-02069},
      isbn         = {978-91-88695-48-2},
      pages        = {349 - 360},
      year         = {2018},
      comment      = {Proceedings from the 8th International Symposium on Tunnel
                      Safety and Security},
      booktitle     = {Proceedings from the 8th International
                       Symposium on Tunnel Safety and
                       Security},
      abstract     = {Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with
                      interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety
                      measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis
                      quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex
                      models. Examples for complex models are the computational
                      fluid dynamics model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the
                      microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac. However, the high
                      computational effort of complex models often limits the
                      number of scenarios in practice. To balance this drawback,
                      the scenarios are often simplified. Accordingly, there is a
                      challenge to consider complex scenarios in risk analysis.To
                      face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the
                      methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In
                      general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences
                      of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a
                      large number of arbitrary scenarios used in risk analysis.
                      Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based
                      design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction
                      interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty.
                      Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design
                      in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement on
                      regions with high metamodel uncertainties; and the
                      combination of two experimental designs for FDS and
                      FDS+Evac.To scrutinise the metamodel, we analysed the
                      effects of three sequential refinement steps on the
                      metamodel itself and on the results of risk analysis. We
                      observed convergence in both after the second step (ten
                      scenarios in FDS, 192 scenarios in FDS+Evac). In comparison
                      to ISTSS 2016, we then ran 20 scenarios in FDS and 800
                      scenarios in FDS+Evac. Thus, we reduced the number of
                      scenarios remarkably with the improved metamodel. In
                      conclusion, we can now efficiently integrate complex
                      scenarios in risk analysis. We further emphasise that the
                      metamodel is broadly applicable on various experimental or
                      modelling issues in fire safety engineering.},
      month         = {Mar},
      date          = {2018-03-14},
      organization  = {Eighth International Symposium on
                       Tunnel Safety and Security, Borås
                       (Sweden), 14 Mar 2018 - 16 Mar 2018},
      cin          = {IAS-7},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IAS-7-20180321},
      pnm          = {511 - Computational Science and Mathematical Methods
                      (POF3-511)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-511},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)8 / PUB:(DE-HGF)7},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/844684},
}