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@ARTICLE{Dirnbck:858792,
      author       = {Dirnböck, Thomas and Pröll, Gisela and Austnes, Kari and
                      Beloica, Jelena and Beudert, Burkhard and Canullo, Roberto
                      and De Marco, Alessandra and Fornasier, Maria Francesca and
                      Futter, Martyn and Görgen, Klaus and Grandin, Ulf and
                      Holmberg, Maria and Lindroos, Antti-Jussi and Mirtl, Michael
                      and Neirynck, Johan and Pecka, Tomasz and Nieminen, Tiina
                      Maileena and Nordbakken, Jørn-Frode and Posch, Maximilian
                      and Reinds, Gert-Jan and Rowe, Edwin C and Salemaa, Maija
                      and Scheuschner, Thomas and Starlinger, Franz and Uziębło,
                      Aldona Katarzyna and Valinia, Salar and Weldon, James and
                      Wamelink, Wieger G W and Forsius, Martin},
      title        = {{C}urrently legislated decreases in nitrogen deposition
                      will yield only limited plant species recovery in {E}uropean
                      forests},
      journal      = {Environmental research letters},
      volume       = {13},
      number       = {12},
      issn         = {1748-9318},
      address      = {Bristol},
      publisher    = {IOP Publ.},
      reportid     = {FZJ-2018-07632},
      pages        = {125010 -},
      year         = {2018},
      abstract     = {Atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution is considered
                      responsible for a substantial decline in plant species
                      richness and for altered community structures in terrestrial
                      habitats worldwide. Nitrogen affects habitats through direct
                      toxicity, soil acidification, and in particular by favoring
                      fast-growing species. Pressure from N pollution is
                      decreasing in some areas. In Europe (EU28), overall
                      emissions of NO x declined by more than $50\%$ while NH3
                      declined by less than $30\%$ between the years 1990 and
                      2015, and further decreases may be achieved. The timescale
                      over which these improvements will affect ecosystems is
                      uncertain. Here we use 23 European forest research sites
                      with high quality long-term data on deposition, climate,
                      soil recovery, and understory vegetation to assess benefits
                      of currently legislated N deposition reductions in forest
                      understory vegetation. A dynamic soil model coupled to a
                      statistical plant species niche model was applied with
                      site-based climate and deposition. We use indicators of N
                      deposition and climate warming effects such as the change in
                      the occurrence of oligophilic, acidophilic, and
                      cold-tolerant plant species to compare the present with
                      projections for 2030 and 2050. The decrease in N deposition
                      under current legislation emission (CLE) reduction targets
                      until 2030 is not expected to result in a release from
                      eutrophication. Albeit the model predictions show
                      considerable uncertainty when compared with observations,
                      they indicate that oligophilic forest understory plant
                      species will further decrease. This result is partially due
                      to confounding processes related to climate effects and to
                      major decreases in sulphur deposition and consequent
                      recovery from soil acidification, but shows that decreases
                      in N deposition under CLE will most likely be insufficient
                      to allow recovery from eutrophication.},
      cin          = {IBG-3},
      ddc          = {690},
      cid          = {I:(DE-Juel1)IBG-3-20101118},
      pnm          = {255 - Terrestrial Systems: From Observation to Prediction
                      (POF3-255) / eLTER - European Long-Term Ecosystem and
                      socio-ecological Research Infrastructure (654359)},
      pid          = {G:(DE-HGF)POF3-255 / G:(EU-Grant)654359},
      typ          = {PUB:(DE-HGF)16},
      UT           = {WOS:000453617600003},
      doi          = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaf26b},
      url          = {https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/858792},
}